Coinbase Set to Report Q4 Earnings with Strongest Volume Since 2021.

Coinbase Q4 Results Expected to Show Major Earnings Boost Amid Crypto Surge, 2025 Forecast Uncertain

Coinbase (COIN), one of the largest U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchanges, is set to release its fourth-quarter earnings after Thursday’s market close. Wall Street analysts are anticipating a significant uptick in earnings, driven by a strong crypto market performance in the final quarter of 2024.

Revenue for Q4 is expected to hit $1.8 billion, according to FactSet, a notable increase from $1.26 billion in Q3. Earnings per share (EPS) are forecast to climb to $1.99, up from just $0.41 in the previous quarter.

More importantly, analysts are expecting a surge in exchange volume following the crypto rally spurred by Donald Trump’s presidential election victory. Coinbase’s Q4 volume is predicted to reach $195.9 billion, up from $185.3 billion in Q3, which would make it the highest quarterly volume since the fourth quarter of 2021.

“We maintain a positive outlook on Coinbase, positioning it to capitalize on the crypto market entering a new phase,” analysts at Citi wrote in a note. Citi has a “buy” rating on the stock and recently raised its price target to $350, up from $275. At Tuesday’s close, Coinbase shares were trading at $270, nearly 90% higher than the same time last year. Citi’s analysts, however, expect Q4 revenue of $1.7 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.8 billion.

JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington also called the November election a significant moment for the crypto space but remains neutral on Coinbase shares. He estimates Q4 revenue will come in at $1.77 billion, again falling short of the $1.8 billion consensus.

2025 Outlook: Caution Amid Uncertainty

While Q4 2024 saw several catalysts boosting crypto, predicting Coinbase’s performance in 2025 is challenging, as policy changes often take time to affect the market, according to analysts.

“For 2025, we anticipate relatively stable crypto prices and more normalized volumes, with transaction revenue growth of 6% year-over-year, versus the consensus forecast of just 3%,” Citi noted.

Despite this, Citi expects Coinbase’s stock to remain volatile, heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic shifts and market sentiment. “The coming 1-2 years will be crucial for Coinbase, shaping its business model and competitive strategy, as well as the wider digital asset sector,” the bank’s analysts added.

Diversification Remains Key for Coinbase’s Future

Over the past year, Coinbase has prioritized diversifying its revenue sources, as its reliance on trading fees remains high, still accounting for about 50% of its total revenue. Research firm Kaiko notes that retail trading, which historically drove higher-fee transactions, has not yet returned to the levels seen in 2021. Retail volume now represents just 18% of total trading, down from 40% in 2021, which continues to put pressure on transaction revenue.

Citi believes that Coinbase has the opportunity to address this gap by expanding into areas such as tokenization of assets, Web3 applications, and smart contract technologies. The exchange could also tap into the growing need for cross-border solutions, as well as exploring blockchain’s potential for AI governance.

“Coinbase’s growth will hinge on unlocking utility within the crypto space, a promising area still in its early stages and waiting for more defined regulatory frameworks,” Citi concluded.