Citi Signals Softer Crypto Market, Reduces 12-Month BTC and ETH Estimates

Citi has reduced its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether after dropping its ETF inflow assumptions, citing stalled U.S. crypto legislation and weakening investor demand.

The Wall Street bank cut its outlook for bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH), pointing to a sharp slowdown in exchange-traded fund inflows and fading expectations that regulatory progress in the U.S. would revive institutional participation.

Citi now sees bitcoin reaching $82,000 in its base case, down from $112,000, while ether is forecast at $2,240, lowered from $3,175. It has also shifted to an assumption of zero net ETF inflows over the next year, reversing its prior view that regulatory clarity would drive fresh institutional capital.

At the time of publication, bitcoin was trading near $58,400, with ether around $1,570.

“The absence of a catalyst for increased investor interest means we reduce our base-case flow expectations to zero over the next 12 months,” analyst Alex Saunders wrote in a Tuesday note.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, a major source of institutional demand since their 2024 launch, have recently seen sustained outflows. In June, the funds recorded $4 billion in net withdrawals—the largest monthly total on record—following a 13-day redemption streak that pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory.

The downgrade marks a clear reversal from Citi’s earlier outlook, which assumed U.S. digital asset market structure legislation would accelerate adoption among financial advisors and traditional investors. The bank now believes that timeline has been pushed out, removing a key near-term catalyst for the market.

Saunders said ETF flows remain the primary driver of crypto pricing, with recent data reflecting a pullback in risk appetite.

The report also highlighted concerns that digital asset treasury (DAT) firms could become net sellers of bitcoin, a risk amplified by recent activity from Strategy, even though actual selling has been limited.

It added that both bitcoin and ether continue to trade below key technical levels, including their 200-day moving averages, while speculative capital has rotated toward AI-related equities.

Citi’s revised model assumes flat ETF flows in its base case. In a bullish scenario, stronger institutional and retail demand could lift bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. In a bearish scenario driven by recessionary conditions and continued ETF outflows, bitcoin could fall to $53,000 and ether to $1,094.

While Citi has grown more positive on U.S. equities overall—offering some indirect support through cross-asset correlations—it said macro strength alone is not enough to offset weakening crypto-specific flows.

Even so, the bank reiterated that ETF flows remain the most important variable in its valuation framework, noting that any rebound in demand or unexpected regulatory progress could quickly change its outlook.