Call-Heavy Book Sets the Stage for Bitcoin’s $16B Quarterly Options Expiry

Bitcoin is approaching a major quarterly options settlement, with $15.9 billion in BTC contracts set to expire alongside $2.1 billion in Ether options on Friday. The combined $18 billion expiry could influence dealer hedging activity and short-term price volatility.

The contracts will expire at 8:00 UTC, according to Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers. Bitcoin was trading at about $84,277, while Ether stood near $2,663.

The BTC settlement alone represents around 37% of Deribit’s total Bitcoin options open interest, which was approximately $43.5 billion. Open interest measures the dollar value of outstanding contracts, with each contract representing one BTC or ETH.

Strijers said the Sept. 25 settlement is among the largest quarterly expiries Deribit will handle this year. The September Bitcoin options book is weighted toward calls, with a put/call open-interest ratio of 0.69.

That positioning indicates substantial exposure to higher Bitcoin prices. A call gives its holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy an asset at a predetermined strike price. Put options provide the opposite exposure and are commonly used to position for declines or hedge downside risk.

Crypto options activity has grown rapidly since 2020, with traders combining calls and puts with spot and futures positions to trade around price direction, volatility and time decay. Large quarterly expiries have consequently become closely watched events in the digital-asset market.

$75,000 Is the Key Max-Pain Level

Bitcoin’s max-pain price for Friday’s expiry is around $75,000, well below the current spot price of roughly $85,500. Max pain refers to the price at which option buyers collectively face the greatest losses at expiration.

The concept remains controversial and does not guarantee that Bitcoin will move toward that level. Deribit nevertheless described $75,000 as a potential “soft magnet” as the contracts approach settlement.

The $70,000 strike currently carries the largest open-interest concentration, with calls at that level already deep in the money.

Strijers said 55% of the $9.4 billion in expiring Bitcoin calls are currently in the money. Most puts are out of the money, leaving approximately one-third of the entire $15.9 billion BTC options book in the money.

For a call, being in the money means Bitcoin is trading above the strike price. For a put, the underlying must trade below the strike.

Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot said the distribution of positions across strikes indicates a potential support area around $75,000.

Call open interest is particularly concentrated at $85,000, $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000. Large call-condor structures around those strikes could become increasingly important while Bitcoin trades near $86,000.

On the downside, defensive put positions are concentrated at $60,000, $70,000 and $75,000, creating multiple layers of potential support.

Dealer Hedging Could Shift After Settlement

The expiry could alter Bitcoin’s short-term price dynamics as dealers unwind hedges associated with the expiring contracts.

Strijers said hedging activity linked to short call exposure may have helped Bitcoin move through the $80,000-$87,000 range. Dealers that are short calls typically need to buy spot Bitcoin as prices rise to maintain their hedges, which can reinforce upward price moves.

Once Friday’s contracts settle, that gamma exposure and related hedging flow will disappear. Strijers said the reduced hedging activity could weaken the price-pinning effect and allow short-term volatility to rise.

The shift could also contribute to a new trading range for Bitcoin after the settlement.

Traders will be watching the $85,000 area and monitoring how expiring positions are rolled into October and December contracts. A rollover involves closing or offsetting an existing options position while opening a similar position with a later expiration date.