BTC Rejection at $81K Shifts Crypto Focus to Trump and Fed Policy

Bitcoin retreated after fresh U.S. employment data came in much stronger than expected, adding to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decision.

U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly above the roughly 65,000 economists had anticipated. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.

The report triggered an immediate move in Bitcoin. After trading above $81,000, BTC slipped into a range between the high $78,000s and low $80,000s as traders adjusted their expectations for Fed policy.

The focus now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting. Investors are weighing whether the stronger labor-market data could derail Bitcoin’s recent recovery or simply increase volatility ahead of the policy decision.

August’s hiring figures were also well above the average monthly job gain of about 31,000 recorded over the previous 12 months. The sharp improvement came after a period of weaker employment growth earlier in the summer.

The stronger labor market could make an immediate rate cut less likely. With employment showing resilience, the Fed may have greater justification to keep monetary policy restrictive or even consider raising rates.

Markets quickly responded by increasing expectations for a rate hike instead of a reduction. Bitcoin’s pullback reflected that change in interest-rate expectations.

However, these probabilities represent market forecasts rather than an official policy decision. Traders often reposition in response to economic data well before the Federal Open Market Committee announces its next move.

Donald Trump has continued to argue for lower borrowing costs. In a Truth Social post, he said the U.S. had strengthened its credit position and should therefore benefit from lower interest rates. He also criticized the Federal Reserve Board and called on policymakers to act in the country’s interest.

The latest jobs data delivered a contrasting message. Strong employment generally reduces the urgency for monetary easing, which explains the rise in rate-hike expectations following the report.

Bitcoin has remained highly sensitive to Fed signals throughout the summer. Hawkish comments from Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole previously pushed BTC toward $77,000, while the probability of a rate increase climbed to 57%.

That sentiment shifted on September 3 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller made more neutral comments. Bitcoin jumped 5%, while spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $730.8 million in net inflows.

Rate-hike expectations later returned toward 50%, leaving investors almost evenly split between a potential hike and a hold.

The continued strength of ETF inflows is notable because institutional demand has remained firm despite changing expectations around monetary policy. Although the August jobs report has pushed sentiment in a more hawkish direction, it has not erased the recent improvement in Bitcoin investment flows.

September Fed Meeting Is Bitcoin’s Next Major Catalyst

The September 15–16 Fed meeting is now likely to remain at the center of Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Traders will continue monitoring economic data for clues about whether policymakers are preparing to raise rates or keep them unchanged.

If strong employment conditions continue to support higher rate expectations, restrictive monetary policy could weigh on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.

A surprise rate cut could provide fresh momentum for BTC, particularly if institutional ETF inflows remain strong. But investors would also pay close attention to why the Fed was cutting rates.

A reduction prompted by a serious deterioration in economic conditions could produce a different reaction from a cut made while the economy remains relatively stable. If investors interpret easing as a response to growing economic weakness, Bitcoin and other risk assets could initially face selling pressure.

For now, markets remain close to evenly split between a September rate hike and a hold. The stronger August jobs report has strengthened the hawkish argument, but it has not yet determined the Fed’s final decision.