BTC Nears Key $65K Zone as Weak Jobs Report Adds Fed Policy Uncertainty

Economist says investors should look beyond weak jobs report

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said the latest U.S. employment figures should not be taken at face value, arguing that seasonal adjustment issues at the Bureau of Labor Statistics likely affected the headline number and do not accurately reflect the underlying labor market trend.

He highlighted a major decline in leisure and hospitality employment, suggesting the drop may have been linked to the conclusion of World Cup-related events rather than a broader slowdown in hiring.

Brusuelas said the weak jobs data is unlikely to alter the Federal Reserve’s outlook and that investors and policymakers should place greater emphasis on next week’s inflation report.

U.S. payrolls unexpectedly decline in July

The U.S. labor market weakened further in July, with job growth turning negative for the second consecutive month and potentially giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep interest rates unchanged despite elevated inflation.

The Labor Department’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that employers cut 23,000 jobs in July, falling well below forecasts for an 80,000 increase. The figure also came in below June’s revised gain of 20,000 jobs, which was previously estimated at 57,000.

May’s payroll growth was revised significantly lower as well, dropping to 63,000 from the earlier estimate of 129,000.

The last monthly decline in U.S. employment occurred in February, when payrolls fell by 156,000.

The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1%, beating expectations of 4.2% and improving from June’s reading of 4.2%.

Markets reacted positively to the weaker report, with U.S. stock futures moving higher and Treasury yields falling. Precious metals also rallied, with gold gaining about 3% and silver climbing nearly 6%. Bitcoin remained relatively steady, trading slightly above $65,000.

Wage data also showed signs of cooling. Average hourly earnings increased just 0.1% in July, below the expected 0.3% gain and June’s 0.3% rise. Year-over-year wage growth slowed to 3.2%, compared with forecasts of 3.5% and June’s 3.4%.

Before the report, traders were split over whether the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its September meeting. CME FedWatch data showed markets had priced in a 55% chance of a rate hike before the release, but that probability dropped to 46% afterward.

Bank of America warns investor confidence is nearing extremes

Bank of America’s bull-and-bear sentiment gauge has reached its highest level since 2021, when pandemic-era stimulus fueled strong market optimism.

The bank’s analysts, led by Michael Hartnett, recommended that investors reduce exposure to risk assets and consider defensive investments, longer-duration assets, and the U.S. dollar as the indicator climbed to 9.7 from 9.4, close to its peak level of 10.

However, crypto markets have not experienced the same enthusiasm seen in 2021. While traditional markets continue pushing toward record highs, Bitcoin and other digital assets remain far below previous peaks.

Bitcoin miners move over $37 million in BTC to NYDIG

Bitcoin mining firms transferred more than $37 million worth of BTC to NYDIG, a move that could suggest possible preparation for selling.

However, because NYDIG also provides custody and financing services, the transfers may simply represent operational movements rather than immediate liquidation.

Blockchain tracker Lookonchain reported that MARA Holdings sent 200 BTC worth around $12.86 million, while Riot Platforms transferred 381 BTC valued at approximately $24.51 million to NYDIG.

MetaMask unveils AI-powered wallet for automated crypto actions

MetaMask has launched its AI-based Agent Wallet, allowing users to assign artificial intelligence agents to handle crypto-related tasks, including market monitoring, swaps, and other blockchain transactions.

The wallet supports connections with AI tools such as Claude Code, Codex, and Cursor. Users can define spending limits, control which protocols agents can access, and choose between Guard Mode for tighter restrictions or Beast Mode for greater flexibility.

MetaMask said the wallet works with HyperLiquid and selected Ethereum-compatible networks while adding transaction simulations, security checks, and MEV protection before transactions are executed.

Gold and silver extend rally as investors shift away from AI stocks

Precious metals continued their strong performance on Friday, with gold rising another 1% toward $4,300 per ounce and silver climbing above $64 after gaining more than 4% over the previous 24 hours.

The move comes as investors appear to be rotating away from AI-related equities amid concerns about whether the artificial intelligence market rally can continue at its current pace.

Fidelity strategist warns higher yields could weigh on markets

Fidelity’s global macro director Jurrien Timmer warned that rising 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5% could create pressure across financial markets.

Timmer said the benchmark yield had entered a risky zone at 4.73%, noting that previous market cycles show elevated long-term yields can create challenges for investors.

He identified several possible drivers behind the increase, including strong financing demand from AI companies, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s commitment to its hawkish stance, and reduced policy transparency.

Higher bond yields generally create headwinds for risk assets, including technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin holds near $64,350 ahead of employment data

Bitcoin traded around $64,350 on Friday, remaining mostly unchanged for the week as markets waited for the latest U.S. jobs report. Ether held near $1,903, while major cryptocurrencies traded within narrow ranges.

The market backdrop became slightly less favorable after oil prices increased following renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher oil prices could fuel inflation concerns and encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain tighter monetary policy. Treasury yields moved higher, while the U.S. dollar recorded its strongest performance in two weeks.

For Bitcoin, the main focus remains on macroeconomic conditions. A weaker employment report could strengthen expectations for future rate cuts and support risk assets, while stronger data and rising oil prices could reinforce a more restrictive Fed stance.