Bitcoin’s $80,000 bullish wager has now seized control of the market.

Bitcoin Bulls Target $80K as Options Positioning Flips and Macro Winds Shift

Large investors and derivatives traders are increasingly positioning for a sharp bitcoin rebound toward $80,000, as improving geopolitical sentiment and tightening supply dynamics reshape the market outlook.

After weeks of bearish positioning, sentiment in the bitcoin market appears to have turned. Traders are now building exposure to the upside, signaling growing confidence in a potential breakout.

Data from Deribit, the world’s leading crypto options exchange, shows the $80,000 call option has become the most crowded trade. This marks a notable shift from recent months, when the $60,000 put dominated as prices trended lower.

Open interest at the $80,000 strike has climbed above $1.6 billion, surpassing the $1.41 billion tied to the $60,000 put. Each contract represents one bitcoin, underscoring the scale of bullish positioning now in play.

Bitcoin has already staged a recovery, climbing back above $70,000 after dipping near $67,000 earlier in the week. The rebound has been supported in part by easing geopolitical tensions, with a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran weighing on oil prices.

Lower energy prices could help ease inflation pressures, strengthening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts — a macro backdrop that typically benefits risk assets such as bitcoin.

On-chain data is also reinforcing the bullish narrative. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC have recorded net inflows for only the second time this year, pointing to renewed accumulation by whales rather than ETF-driven demand.

According to Paul Howard, senior director at crypto liquidity provider Wincent, sustained accumulation at this level could trigger a supply squeeze, potentially pushing bitcoin into the $75,000–$80,000 range.

Institutional flows remain another key pillar of support. Over the past month, bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $1.5 billion in net inflows, while holdings among large investors have increased by roughly 6% since the start of the year.

Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares, noted that under favorable conditions — including easing geopolitical risks and improved regulatory clarity — bitcoin could extend gains significantly, with a move toward $100,000 by the end of the second quarter not out of the question.

Despite the improving outlook, risks remain elevated. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile, and any renewed escalation could push oil prices higher again, potentially dampening risk appetite and limiting bitcoin’s upside.

Meanwhile, upcoming macro data could inject volatility into markets. U.S. fourth-quarter GDP figures are due later today. While backward-looking, any significant deviation from expectations could still trigger short-term price swings.

From a technical perspective, bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point. Price action is testing a descending trendline drawn from the October 2025 peak above $126,000 — a level that has defined the broader bear market.

A decisive breakout above this resistance, particularly on strong volume, would signal a potential trend reversal and open the door for a move toward $75,000–$80,000 in the near term.

However, failure to break higher would reinforce the trendline as resistance, increasing the likelihood of continued downside pressure. In that scenario, bitcoin could retest support levels around $65,000 or potentially move lower.