Bitcoin steadies above $70,000, with its next move tied to uncertain Iran-U.S. “talks.”

Crypto markets rebounded after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, but traders say the next move will depend on whether tensions between the U.S. and Iran cool or escalate.

Bitcoin held onto its gains after briefly pushing above $70,000 earlier in the session, with its near-term outlook now closely tied to geopolitical developments. Trump’s statement, which referenced “productive” diplomatic discussions, helped lift sentiment across risk assets.

Although Iranian officials later denied that any talks were taking place, markets largely shrugged off the contradiction, with crypto prices remaining resilient through the day.

Bitcoin was trading just under $71,000 later in the session, up about 3.8% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins outperformed, with ether, solana and dogecoin each posting gains of roughly 5%.

Crypto-related equities also moved higher, particularly bitcoin miners, which have increasingly tracked broader AI infrastructure trends. Hut 8 surged more than 11%, while Bitfarms, Cipher Mining, CleanSpark, Riot Platforms and TeraWulf gained between 6% and 7%.

Traditional markets also joined the rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each closing about 1.2% higher.

Despite the relief-driven bounce, traders remain cautious. Jasper de Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, said the broader macro backdrop has shifted, but the extent of the upside will depend on how the next few days unfold.

If oil prices stabilize and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, easing inflation concerns could revive expectations for interest rate cuts, removing a key headwind for crypto. In that scenario, bitcoin could retest the $74,000–$76,000 range, which has capped recent rallies.

On the other hand, a breakdown in diplomatic progress or renewed disruptions to energy supply could send oil prices higher again, reinforcing inflation pressures and pushing markets back into risk-off mode—potentially dragging bitcoin back toward the mid-$60,000s.