Bitcoin stabilizes at the 2023 investor cost basis, mirroring previous market cycles.

Onchain data is pointing to key support levels for bitcoin, with the 2023 investor cost basis emerging as a critical line in the sand and deeper historical support sitting near $54,000.

Bitcoin recently bounced from an important metric known as the realized price—the average cost basis of coins for a given cohort. For 2023 investors, that level is currently around $63,700. During the early February pullback, when bitcoin dropped roughly 50% from its October peak to near $60,000, price tested this level and held, reinforcing it as support.

This pattern closely resembles behavior seen in the previous cycle. In 2023, as the bull market began to take shape, bitcoin underwent multiple pullbacks and consistently found support at its realized price. Similar consolidations occurred in March, July, and September of that year, when prices ranged between $20,000 and $26,000.

More recent cohorts, however, are under pressure. The average cost basis for 2026 buyers began the year near $90,000 but has since fallen to around $77,000. With bitcoin currently trading just above $70,000, this group is now holding unrealized losses. Notably, their cost basis has slipped below that of 2024 investors at $81,500 and 2025 investors at $96,400.

Taking a broader view, bitcoin’s aggregate realized price—representing the average cost basis of all circulating supply—sits near $54,360. Historically, bitcoin has fallen below this level during every major bear market, including those in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.

In the current cycle, bitcoin’s lowest point so far has been around $60,000. If that level breaks, it becomes a key downside threshold, with the aggregate realized price near $54,000 acting as the next major support zone.