Bitcoin Remains Resilient After U.S. Strikes, Set for Best Monthly Gain Since 2024

Bitcoin is showing resilience around $78,000 despite renewed U.S.-Iran tensions triggering a broader move away from risk assets. Oil prices jumped following the military escalation, while several major stock markets moved lower.

BTC has gained more than 24% in August, putting it on course for its strongest August since 2017 and its largest monthly advance since November 2024. Bitcoin rose about 0.5% over the past 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 index slipped 0.75%.

Stock markets delivered mixed results across Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.14%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was largely unchanged and South Korea’s KOSPI advanced 0.46%. U.S. and German equity futures were pointing toward a weaker session.

Crude prices were the standout mover. Brent climbed above $90 per barrel after U.S. forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers, followed by Iranian strikes on military installations. Gold retreated to around $4,440 an ounce.

The increase in energy prices is adding to inflation pressure just as markets digest Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole comments. Those remarks lifted the implied odds of a September Fed rate increase to 58%.

What Derivatives Data Shows

Trading activity has surged:
Crypto volume over the past 24 hours more than doubled to about $183 billion, while total open interest remained near $136 billion. With the long-short taker ratio close to balanced, the data suggests a jump in turnover rather than a major expansion in leveraged exposure.

Liquidations reach $431 million:
Approximately $431 million in crypto positions were liquidated. Ether accounted for around $130 million, while bitcoin saw roughly $100 million. Solana, XRP and Zcash were also among the assets hit by forced closures.

Monero’s rally is becoming crowded:
XMR futures open interest rose 15% to about 637,000 tokens, the highest level since February 2024, according to CoinGlass. Monero’s price climbed roughly 12% in the same period.

The simultaneous rise in price and OI suggests traders are adding long leverage. However, perpetual funding rates near 100% annualized indicate that the market is becoming expensive and crowded. A reversal could therefore lead to aggressive long liquidations.

UNI has similar momentum but lower leverage risk:
Uniswap futures OI increased 12% while UNI gained 5%. Its funding rate, however, is near 2%, making the trade considerably less stretched than Monero.

Open interest declines in ZEC, SHIB and DOGE:
These assets recorded the biggest OI reductions over the past day, although the amount of capital leaving their derivatives markets was relatively small.

BTC and ETH remain below peak leverage:
Bitcoin futures open interest remains under 700,000 BTC, well below the June 4 high of about 801,000. Ether is displaying a similar positioning profile.

CVD remains negative for most majors:
The 24-hour cumulative volume delta is negative across most large cryptocurrencies, pointing to stronger aggressive selling. Monero and Uniswap are the main exceptions, both posting positive CVD.

Volatility expectations are easing:
Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility gauge, BVIV, has fallen below 40% after reaching nearly 50% earlier this month. The decline suggests traders are anticipating more stable price action. Ether’s implied volatility has also dropped.

Options traders maintain downside protection:
Bitcoin puts at $70,000, $73,000 and $74,000 were among the most actively traded contracts on Deribit over the past day. The activity points to continued hedging against a potential decline. Ether options show a similar pattern.

Altcoin Leaders and Laggards

Uniswap gained 6.9% over 24 hours, supported by data showing that more than $1.5 billion in tokenized stock trades have been processed through Uniswap on Robinhood Chain.

PancakeSwap also climbed 6.9% without an obvious new catalyst. Dash rose 3.4%, Bitcoin Cash gained 1.3% and bitcoin added around 0.7%.

Prom was the weakest performer, falling 18% as traders appeared to take profits following its recent speculative rally. Even after the decline, PROM remained more than 100% higher over the past seven days.

Bitcoin’s ability to hold near $78,000 while oil rises and equities weaken keeps its August performance firmly in focus. With gains above 24% for the month, BTC remains on pace for one of its strongest monthly advances in years, although inflation risks, Fed policy and crowded derivatives trades could influence the next move.