Bitcoin Barely Moves as Iran Strike Fuels Oil Rally and Stock Sell-Off

Bitcoin has continued to show relative strength in August, holding steady even as renewed geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher and weigh on traditional markets.

The latest escalation followed a U.S. attack on an Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran responding militarily. The strategic waterway is a major route for global oil shipments and has experienced disruptions since the conflict began about six months ago.

Crude prices moved higher following the developments. WTI futures gained nearly 2% to $85.10 a barrel, while Brent crude rose 1.9% to $92.39, according to TradingView.

Meanwhile, gold dropped 0.8% to $4,418 an ounce, and Nasdaq futures declined 0.5% as Asian equities also traded lower.

Bitcoin showed little immediate reaction. BTC was near $77,580 during Asian hours, broadly unchanged from its midnight UTC level, according to CoinDesk.

Bitcoin has gained around 23% in August, exceeding gold’s roughly 9% advance and the Nasdaq’s 4% increase. Other major cryptocurrencies were slightly weaker, with XRP down 0.8% and Solana off 0.6%.

Bitcoin Defies Broader Risk-Off Moves

Several factors may be helping bitcoin maintain its strength, including continued demand for spot bitcoin ETFs and expectations of potential Federal Reserve action following the Treasury’s bond-buyback program.

Still, the outlook for U.S. monetary policy has become less supportive after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Warsh said inflation remains inadequately contained and argued that current financial conditions are not sufficiently restrictive. He also cautioned that recent declines in inflation have not yet established a meaningful improvement in underlying price pressures.

His comments triggered a reassessment of rate expectations. MUFG FX strategist Lloyd Chan said traders were pricing a 58% probability of a September rate hike and about 1.5 rate increases by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin Levels to Watch

The combination of geopolitical risks and uncertainty around Fed policy has encouraged some market participants to reduce risk.

Vikram Subbaraj, CEO of India-based Giottus, advised traders to avoid aggressive leverage and instead use smaller positions and staggered entries.

He highlighted $77,000 as a key near-term support level for BTC. On the upside, the $79,400-$80,800 area represents a significant resistance zone, especially with the U.S. jobs report scheduled for September 4.

For now, bitcoin’s stability against a backdrop of rising oil prices and weaker equities underscores its strong August performance. Whether that resilience persists will depend on incoming economic data, Federal Reserve expectations and developments in the geopolitical environment.