Bitcoin Navigates Rate Hike and Clarity Act Setback in Tough September

Bitcoin has declined just 1.5% in September, traditionally its weakest month, despite a combination of higher interest rates, elevated oil prices and a stronger dollar. The cryptocurrency remains about 32% higher for the quarter, leaving it on course for its first quarterly gain since the third quarter of 2025.

The limited September decline stands out against bitcoin’s historical performance. Since 2013, BTC has averaged a loss of roughly 3% during the month.

Bitcoin entered September after a 25% rally in August that pushed its price to around $81,000. Given the asset’s seasonal weakness, traders had expected a larger reversal of those gains. Instead, the decline has remained contained.

BTC was trading near $78,000 at the time of writing, roughly matching its level before Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate increase. The 25-basis-point hike had been viewed as a potential drag on cryptocurrencies and other risk-sensitive markets.

The failed Clarity Act vote provided another test. The legislation received 49 votes in the Senate on Tuesday, falling short of the 60 needed to advance. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $74,887 before recovering, suggesting the market had already absorbed much of the anticipated impact.

“What stands out to me is that Bitcoin has hardly budged at all in response to two objectively bad pieces of news. A 25-basis-point hike and the CLARITY Act failing to pass are both headlines that, in a different market environment, would have sent price meaningfully lower. Instead, we got basically nothing,” Mitchell Askew, head of Blockware Intelligence at Blockware, said in an email.

Sellers Show Fewer Signs of Pressure

Askew said bitcoin’s limited reaction to negative catalysts could indicate that much of the potential selling has already taken place.

“Anybody who was going to sell bitcoin based on events like these has already sold. They no longer have coins to sell. That is an incredibly positive sign for the medium to long term, and it is exactly what you tend to see in the later stages of a bottoming process,” she said.

The broader macro environment has remained difficult. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed above $106 a barrel Tuesday, reaching a five-month high as tensions in the Middle East persisted.

The Dollar Index also crossed above 100, reaching its highest level in more than a month. A stronger dollar can tighten global financial conditions and weigh on assets such as bitcoin.

Japan’s central bank added another factor by raising its benchmark borrowing rate to a 31-year high.

Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said investors should not automatically interpret rising rates and yields as negative for bitcoin. In his view, higher borrowing costs can also reflect concerns surrounding currency debasement and sovereign counterparty risk, potentially supporting store-of-value assets.

“It’s not a one-way street. You see yields rising, and at the same time Bitcoin and gold outperforming. If rising rates are an indication of debasement risk and sovereign counterparty risk, then for store of value assets that is actually a positive driver,” Dori said in an email.

Bitcoin Remains Above Key Level

Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $77,000 has become a notable feature of the current market, given the combination of regulatory setbacks, higher energy prices, tighter monetary policy and dollar strength.

Joel Kruger, markets strategist at LMAX Group, said bitcoin’s resilience could become more significant if external conditions begin to improve.

“If the market has been this resilient when the news flow has been challenging, even a modest improvement in macro, geopolitical or regulatory conditions could provide the catalyst for the next major leg higher,” Kruger said.

The regulatory environment also produced a fresh development Thursday. The Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled its long-awaited innovation exemption for tokenized securities venues, allowing qualifying platforms to conduct onchain stock trading under specified conditions.

“The failure to advance the legislation delays a statutory framework, but it does not prevent the SEC and CFTC from continuing to provide guidance under existing authority, leaving an important regulatory pathway open,” Kruger said.

More Fed Hikes and Seasonality in Focus

Investors are also watching the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate increases. Markets are pricing in three additional quarter-point hikes by April 2027, which would place the federal funds rate at 4.50%-4.75%.

Dori said digital assets do not necessarily require declining rates to continue outperforming.

“I do not fully agree that rates need to fall in order for digital assets to outperform,” he said.

Near-term seasonality presents another consideration. According to CoinGlass, bitcoin has historically fallen an average of 2.5% during the year’s 38th week and has posted gains in only four instances.

That historical pattern does not determine future returns. Bitcoin’s seasonal performance has generally improved in the fourth quarter, when it has averaged a 77% gain, according to CoinDesk data.