Bitcoin may set a fresh lower high amid a stock market surge and strong performance in AI tokens.

Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening again, with price action hinting at the formation of another lower high, even as ether remains stuck in a prolonged sideways range and U.S. equity futures continue to climb.

BTC hovered near $76,600 on Tuesday, down 0.8% since midnight UTC, after failing to sustain a brief rally to $77,800 the previous day. The rejection reinforces a broader downtrend structure that has been developing since October, with the asset losing about 7% over the past two weeks.

The divergence with traditional markets is becoming more pronounced. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have both advanced more than 0.5%, indicating that crypto’s softness is likely being driven by internal market factors rather than macroeconomic or geopolitical developments.

Ether continues to lag. Trading around $2,098, ETH has declined more than 10% over the past two weeks and remains confined within a range established between February and April, showing little momentum to break higher.

Performance across the altcoin market is uneven. AI-related tokens are posting gains, while earlier leaders such as zcash have come under pressure, with ZEC dropping roughly 7% since midnight.

Derivatives market activity has cooled. Total crypto futures volume has fallen 10% to $130 billion over the past 24 hours, while open interest remains relatively unchanged at around $126 billion. Liquidations have decreased 21% to $126 million, reflecting subdued trading conditions following the extended U.S. holiday.

Positioning across altcoins suggests a selective approach from traders. Tokens like SHIB, LINK, HBAR, NEAR and TRX have seen increases in open interest, while ZEC, XLM and HYPE have recorded declines, pointing to rotation rather than broad inflows.

NEAR remains a standout performer. The token surged 58% in the week ending May 24 and has added another 14% since, reaching $2.82 — a level last seen in November. The rally appears to be supported by a series of protocol upgrades focused on scalability, privacy, and quantum resistance, alongside growing derivatives participation. Open interest has climbed sharply to a record 309 million tokens from 182 million just a week ago.

Buying pressure in NEAR also remains strong, as reflected in its positive cumulative volume delta, indicating aggressive demand from market participants. Funding rates remain only modestly positive, suggesting the rally has not yet reached overheated levels.

Chainlink is also seeing renewed interest, with futures open interest rising to 42.96 million tokens, the highest level since early February. Funding rates near 8% annualized indicate futures are trading at a premium to spot prices, typically viewed as a bullish signal.

Meanwhile, bitcoin futures activity has softened, with open interest dropping to 711,000 BTC from 793,000 earlier this month. Ether open interest remains elevated just below record highs near 15 million ETH. At the same time, implied volatility for both assets continues to decline, signaling ongoing volatility selling and a lack of strong demand for options.

Despite the calm, some traders are positioning defensively. On Deribit, bitcoin put options with strike prices between $70,000 and $76,000 are among the most actively traded, reflecting demand for downside protection.

In terms of sector performance, AI-linked assets are leading. CoinDesk’s Computing Select Index, which tracks AI tokens and Chainlink, has risen 1.9% since midnight UTC and 2.7% over the past 24 hours, with tokens like FET and RENDER posting notable gains.

The DeFi Select Index has also outperformed major cryptocurrencies, gaining 1.3%, suggesting that traders are rotating into higher-risk plays while waiting for clearer direction from bitcoin and ether.

Privacy-focused tokens are under pressure across the board, with monero and dash each declining around 1.5%, following weakness in zcash.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index has ticked up to 35 out of 100 from last week’s 31, though it remains below the recent high of 50, indicating that a sustained altcoin-led rally has yet to fully materialize.