Bitcoin Hits a Rare Winning Streak Last Seen in 2012

Bitcoin is on pace to finish September with a gain of about 10%, setting up a three-month winning run that has only been recorded once before, in 2012.

The cryptocurrency has advanced for three straight months if September holds its gains. CoinDesk data shows Bitcoin rose 4.8% in July and jumped 25.2% in August, while its September gain stood at 10.9% at $86,140 at the time of writing.

The only comparable stretch came in 2012, when Bitcoin climbed 41.0% in July, 6.4% in August and 24.4% in September.

That rally sequence ended in October, when Bitcoin lost 9.7%. The price eventually fell to $10.17 on Oct. 26 before reversing sharply. Bitcoin then gained for 165 days, reaching $230 by April 2013 and producing a return of more than 2,000%, according to CoinDesk’s analysis of daily price data.

The 2012 example, however, offers limited guidance for the current market. Bitcoin has traded since at least late 2010, but a similar July-to-September winning sequence has appeared only once. That makes the historical sample too small to establish a reliable relationship between the pattern and what may happen next.

The comparison is still notable because of the size of the rally that followed in 2012 and Bitcoin’s broader four-year market cycle. Some cycle models identify October or November as a potential transition into a stronger phase, but those models are approximations rather than fixed timing indicators.

Bitcoin’s market has also expanded dramatically since the 2012 rally. At the time, the cryptocurrency was trading near $10 and had limited liquidity, allowing relatively small amounts of capital to move the market significantly.

The asset now sits within a multitrillion-dollar market supported by institutional investors, spot ETFs and deep liquidity across spot and derivatives venues. Options, futures and basis trading have also become established parts of the market. Those structural changes make a repeat of the early Bitcoin era’s 2,000%-plus rally far less comparable.

“Bitcoin now belongs to a global asset class with institutional ownership. Spot ETFs have created a regulated channel for investment. Derivatives markets have changed how risk is transferred. The rally of more than 2,000% that followed the 2012 sequence cannot become a reasonable expectation for 2026,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, said.

Subburaj said the key distinction is the scale and nature of capital now participating in Bitcoin.

“The real change is therefore one of market structure. Bitcoin’s rise in 2012 began in a market that could be transformed by a small pool of buyers. The case in 2026 depends on whether large pools of capital continue allocating after the easiest gains have been made,” he said.

ETF activity provides one indication of that institutional involvement. U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $5.5 billion in inflows since August, according to SoSoValue.

“The durability of those allocations matters more,” Subburaj said.

Historical Cycles Remain a Reference Point

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said Bitcoin’s historical cycles can offer context, even though they do not necessarily produce identical price patterns each time.

“We always look for patterns, and Bitcoin has, for better or worse, continued to adhere to the 4-year cycle. Sometimes slightly late, sometimes early, so it is not unsurprising that we see certain patterns play out again and again (to a certain degree, of course),” Sondergaard told CoinDesk.

Sondergaard said the historical record does not guarantee a negative October, although a pullback after the recent advance could occur.

“It is not a guarantee that we will now see a red October, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see some drawback (not a wild new low) but some drawback in the coming weeks given how the market has been performing,” he said.

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, said the more important question is what is supporting Bitcoin’s current advance. She pointed to institutional ETF flows as a potential source of continued demand that could absorb supply into the fourth quarter, even if the recent short squeeze loses momentum.

Macro policy remains a potential counterweight, Zhang said.

“The main counterweight remains macro conditions, with the Fed raising rates to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that another hike could follow this year. Whether spot inflows remain positive after the squeeze fades will therefore be a more useful signal of durability than the calendar pattern itself,” Zhang said.