Bitcoin faces rising macro risks as Ukraine disrupts Trump’s efforts to stabilize oil markets

Ukraine’s latest strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have injected new uncertainty into already fragile energy markets, complicating inflation expectations and keeping pressure on risk assets, including bitcoin.

The disruption has also undercut U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to stabilize global oil supply amid the ongoing Iran conflict, adding another layer of macro risk for financial markets.

For weeks, markets have been dominated by a single theme: the Iran war. Supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—a key global النفط chokepoint—have driven crude prices sharply higher, fueling concerns about persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions and the potential for renewed Federal Reserve rate hikes.

In response, the Trump administration moved to ease sanctions on Russian crude, temporarily boosting supply in an effort to offset Middle East disruptions and calm energy markets.

That strategy, however, has been thrown off course.

Ukraine this week launched drone attacks targeting ports and refining infrastructure in Russia’s Leningrad region, in what some analysts have described as the most serious threat to Russian oil exports since the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The impact has been substantial, with an estimated 40% of Russia’s export capacity disrupted. Analysts note that the issue is not just production, but logistics—moving oil to global markets has become increasingly difficult.

Combined with ongoing tensions in the Middle East and constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, the latest disruption adds fresh upward pressure on already elevated oil prices.

That dynamic carries broader implications. Persistently high energy costs risk keeping inflation elevated, which in turn could force central banks to maintain or even tighten monetary policy—draining liquidity from global markets.

Traders are already positioning for that possibility. Options market activity tied to short-term interest rates suggests rising expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term.

For bitcoin, the shifting macro backdrop could prove challenging. While the cryptocurrency has shown resilience in recent weeks, the combination of higher oil prices, sticky inflation and tightening liquidity conditions raises the risk of a downside break from its recent range.

At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $68,500, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, WTI crude—after briefly falling to around $83.95 earlier in the week—has rebounded to approximately $93.50, while Brent crude has climbed back above $100 per barrel.