Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Retreat as Markets Hold Back Before Iran Signing

A U.S.–Iran agreement helped drive oil prices lower and lifted equities, but Bitcoin has responded more cautiously, with ETF outflows only recently stabilizing after a prolonged streak of redemptions. Market participants say many investors are waiting for formal confirmation of the deal before fully pricing in any sustained impact.

Bitcoin (BTC) briefly climbed above $67,000 late Monday before slipping back under $66,000, highlighting its more muted reaction compared with traditional risk assets that rallied on the Iran peace developments.

BTC traded near $65,845 on Tuesday, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours and 4.8% on the week, according to CoinDesk data. It reached an intraday peak of $67,217 before losing momentum. Ether outperformed with a 2.8% gain to $1,764, while Solana rose 3.2% to $73. XRP added 3.2% to $1.22, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE led major tokens with a 6.3% increase to $69.

Macro markets reacted more decisively to the news. A memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, signed electronically by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, boosted sentiment, with Trump also stating that the Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen on Friday.

Oil prices fell sharply, with Brent crude sliding below $83 per barrel after its biggest drop in more than two weeks. Equities rallied as well, with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and the Nasdaq 100 gaining 3.1% on Monday.

Even so, Bitcoin underperformed the broader risk-on move.

“Oil dropped more than 4% and Asian equities jumped more than 3% on the ceasefire, but BTC barely moved,” said Jimmy Xue, co-founder and COO of Axis. He described the reaction as a tentative relief rally rather than a confirmed shift into sustained crypto risk appetite.

The cautious tone reflects recent market behavior. Bitcoin has previously given back gains after earlier Iran-related relief rallies, including after an April ceasefire attempt and again following June 9 developments that later unraveled. Adding to uncertainty, Trump also warned the agreement could still fall apart if Iran does not dismantle its nuclear program.

According to Xue, traders are likely waiting for the June 19 signing in Switzerland before treating the agreement as durable.

ETF flows also suggest lingering caution. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have only just ended a four-week streak of outflows totaling about $5.4 billion, including a record weekly withdrawal of roughly $3.4 billion. A sustained return of inflows has yet to appear, though continued movement of coins into cold storage indicates longer-term holders remain steady.

Not all analysts share the cautious view.

“It’s a constructive setup for risk assets, including crypto,” said Chris Perkins, incoming head of Franklin Crypto at Franklin Templeton. He noted that improving macro conditions, alongside the recent SpaceX IPO, could help draw retail investors back into digital assets.

Perkins also pointed to the CLARITY Act, which would define whether digital assets are classified as securities or commodities, saying markets currently view its passage as closely contested but potentially important for institutional adoption.

Attention now shifts to central bank policy. The Bank of Japan recently raised rates to 1%, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold steady, and the Federal Reserve is set to announce its decision on Wednesday.

For Bitcoin—often seen as a high-beta risk asset—the Fed decision and Friday’s Iran signing are expected to be the key catalysts determining whether the current rebound continues or fades like previous attempts.