Bitcoin ETFs Add $1.08B in Three Days, but Is It Enough to Fuel a Rally?

Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $1 billion in inflows this week, indicating that investor demand may be recovering. However, the latest buying activity remains well below the levels that supported Bitcoin’s strongest historical rallies, according to CoinDesk’s analysis of fund-flow data.

Figures from SoSoValue show renewed investment in U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs. While the return of capital is a positive development, analysts warn that a sustained increase in inflows is needed to establish a stronger recovery.

Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus, said institutional interest was showing tentative improvement but remained inconsistent. He added that continued inflows would be necessary to confirm a more durable upward trend.

Historical Rallies Were Supported by Heavy ETF Demand

Since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, BTC has recorded three major rallies in which its price rose more than 50% without experiencing a decline exceeding 20% from its peak during the advance.

Between Jan. 23 and March 14, 2024, Bitcoin gained 79%, climbing from approximately $39,900 to $71,400. ETF inflows averaged $294 million per day. During that period, 10 sessions recorded inflows of at least $500 million, while one exceeded $1 billion.

The second rally unfolded from Aug. 5 to Dec. 17, 2024, as Bitcoin advanced 96%, rising from around $54,100 to $106,100. Average daily inflows reached $202 million, with 16 sessions attracting at least $500 million and three surpassing $1 billion.

From April 6 to July 14, 2025, BTC climbed another 53%, moving from approximately $78,400 to $119,900. ETF inflows averaged $248 million daily, including 13 sessions with investments of $500 million or more and two that exceeded $1 billion.

Across these three rallies, the funds attracted $46.7 billion over 199 trading days, averaging roughly $235 million in daily net inflows. Investors contributed at least $500 million on 39 days and more than $1 billion on six occasions.

Current Inflows Fall Short of the Historical Pace

Since July 1, Bitcoin has risen 39%, moving from roughly $60,000 to $83,500. However, ETF investment has been considerably weaker than during previous major advances.

The funds recorded seven days with inflows of at least $500 million, or approximately one in every 11 trading sessions. During the earlier rallies, that level was reached roughly once every five sessions.

Average daily net inflows since July 1 have been around $86 million, substantially below the $200 million-plus levels associated with previous steep rallies. The funds have also yet to record a single day with inflows of $1 billion or more during this period.

The difference suggests that ETF demand has not yet reached the strength historically linked to Bitcoin’s sharpest upward moves. Continued and more consistent institutional buying could provide stronger support for prices, although past trends do not guarantee similar results.

ETF flows are also only one source of market demand. Futures activity and direct purchases on spot exchanges can contribute to price gains, meaning Bitcoin could still rally even if ETF inflows remain below historical levels.