Bitcoin Drops Below Key Level Despite Iran Deal Signals and Risk-On Sentiment

Bitcoin and ether struggled to gain momentum on Monday despite improving global market conditions, as concerns over the ongoing Coldcard wallet exploit outweighed the positive impact of falling oil prices and lower Treasury yields.

Major digital assets moved lower even as renewed U.S.-Iran negotiations helped reduce inflation and geopolitical concerns. The market remained unsettled by the Coldcard hardware wallet breach, which has continued to reveal additional affected addresses and losses.

Bitcoin declined from a Sunday high of approximately $63,600 to around $62,800 on Monday, losing 1% on the day and about 4% over the past week. Ether slipped more than 1% to $1,858, failing to reclaim the $1,900 level and falling 5% over seven days. XRP dropped nearly 1% to $1.07, while Solana declined 0.5% to about $73. Dogecoin also moved lower by roughly 0.5%, trading slightly below $0.07.

BNB was the only major cryptocurrency to remain relatively steady, holding flat on the day while gaining 1.6% during the week. Hyperliquid’s HYPE token fell 1% to $52.52, posting the biggest weekly decline among the top 10 cryptocurrencies with a 12.8% drop.

The broader market environment was more supportive. Brent crude futures for October fell as much as 7.3% to $81.55 per barrel after President Donald Trump said he had canceled planned strikes against Iran and would begin fresh negotiations. Saudi Arabia and other regional partners were reportedly working toward a potential agreement that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Lower oil prices eased inflation worries, pushing Treasury yields lower. The 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.69% after reaching its highest point since January 2025 last week. Nasdaq 100 futures and European equity futures both climbed 0.8%, while gold advanced 0.3% to around $4,060 per ounce.

Under normal conditions, falling energy prices, reduced yields, and stronger equity futures would typically support crypto markets. This time, however, bitcoin failed to respond, as investors remained focused on the security fallout from the Coldcard vulnerability.

The latest wave of bitcoin movements linked to compromised Coldcard-generated addresses lifted total confirmed losses to 1,367 BTC, worth nearly $89 million, across 4,585 addresses.

The average amount lost per address has declined with each new wave, indicating that attackers may have already targeted larger wallets and are now reaching smaller holdings.

The first wave on July 30 removed 1,083 BTC from 1,196 addresses. By the third wave, attackers drained 208 BTC from 1,912 wallets, meaning more addresses were affected while the total amount stolen decreased significantly.

Meanwhile, crypto investment flows showed a notable split, with ether-related funds seeing small inflows on Friday while bitcoin funds recorded outflows. The unusual divergence comes as bitcoin typically guides broader market direction.

Market participants are now watching whether bitcoin can hold the $62,000 support level as U.S.-Iran talks develop. A successful agreement that further pressures oil prices could provide another positive catalyst for digital assets. If bitcoin remains unable to recover despite improving macro conditions, it would indicate that crypto-specific risks are currently dominating market sentiment.