Live Updates: Bitcoin Nears $84K With U.S. Jobs Report in Focus

Bitcoin held near $84,000 as the fourth quarter opened, while investors turned their attention to Friday’s U.S. employment report and continued turbulence in global bond markets.

The euro weakened as French government bond yields moved higher and German yields declined, highlighting renewed pressure in European debt markets.

French Bond Spread Reaches 135 Basis Points

France’s 10-year OAT yield advanced 8 basis points, while Germany’s 10-year Bund yield dropped 6 basis points. The difference between the two yields widened to 135 basis points.

French credit-default-swap spreads also reached their highest level in 13 years. Over the past several years, the OAT-Bund spread has typically remained in a range of roughly 50 to 80 basis points.

The euro fell 0.9% against the dollar to $1.1231, its lowest point in about five months.

October Fed Expectations Ease

U.S. Treasury markets reflected a sharp change in expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

The two-year Treasury yield declined 7.5 basis points to 4.81%. At the same time, the market-implied probability of an October Fed move dropped to 33.8%, compared with roughly 70% earlier in the week.

Crude Gains as Middle East Tensions Remain in Focus

Oil prices moved higher following reports that the U.S. was sending a third aircraft carrier and an additional Marine unit to the Middle East.

The Jerusalem Post reported the deployment, citing a U.S. official. WTI crude rose 2.5% to $92.63 after previously trading below $89, while Brent gained 3.6% to $101.53.

Factory Activity Expands Despite Higher Prices

The U.S. manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory in September, although the data also pointed to a renewed increase in price pressures.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.5, compared with 54.6 in August and the 55 consensus estimate. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The New Orders Index rose to 55.3 from 53.7, indicating stronger incoming demand.

Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index jumped to 77.9 from 71.1, exceeding the 72.3 forecast. All commodities included in the report recorded price increases, while none was reported at a lower price.

The data showed an economy still expanding alongside elevated inflation pressure, but markets showed limited reaction ahead of the jobs report.

NEAR Slides After $3.8M Security Breach

NEAR dropped 9% after blockchain investigator ZachXBT reported an exploit involving NEAR Intents that resulted in approximately $3.8 million in losses.

NEAR Intents was temporarily suspended after the project identified a bug involving the interaction between Omni’s deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and a NEAR Intents smart contract.

The vulnerable contract was patched, and the team said NEAR Intents and near.com were expected to return within about an hour.

Treasury Yields Record Largest Monthly Rise Since 2022

The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 53 basis points in September, its biggest monthly gain since September 2022, according to Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman.

The comparable move in September 2022 came alongside a more than 9% decline in the S&P 500. In September 2026, the index lost 0.45%.

Bitcoin also posted a contrasting performance between the two periods, falling 3.1% in September 2022 but gaining 6.3% in September 2026.

The 10-year yield briefly reached 5.362% overnight before pulling back to 5.282%. The earlier reading was described by the source as another 24-year high.

Jobless Claims Edge Lower

U.S. initial jobless claims totaled 197,000, compared with 198,000 in the previous report and the 200,000 economist estimate.

The four-week moving average also declined, falling from 202,500 to 200,000.

The figures came one day before the September nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expected employers to have added 90,000 jobs during the month, while the unemployment rate was forecast to remain at 4.1%.

Strong Q3 Gains Carry Into Fourth Quarter

Bitcoin finished the third quarter 42.7% higher, its strongest quarterly increase since the 68.7% gain recorded in Q1 2024.

Ether rose 70.8% during the quarter, posting its biggest quarterly advance since the 160.7% surge in Q1 2021.

The two cryptocurrencies were largely unchanged on the opening day of Q4. Bitcoin remained just below $84,000, while ether traded slightly above $2,700.

With Treasury yields elevated, inflation pressures visible in manufacturing data and the Federal Reserve outlook shifting, traders are looking to Friday’s jobs report for further clues about the U.S. economy and monetary policy.