Bitcoin Defies the Bear Market Script With Prices Still Above the Red Line

Bitcoin’s current downturn has avoided two signals that typically accompany deeper bear markets: a daily close below Realized Price and a negative aggregate NUPL reading. The resilience of these indicators suggests that overall market stress remains lower than during previous major Bitcoin downturns.

Bitcoin traded below Realized Price for months during the 2018–2019 and 2022–2023 bear markets. This cycle has not followed the same pattern. The cryptocurrency has never posted a daily close below Realized Price, while the June low also remained above the metric. Glassnode notes that if Bitcoin continues to hold above the True Market Mean, the June low would be the shallowest among the three bear-market bottoms in its comparison.

The percentage of supply in profit fell to a level near that seen at the November 2022 bottom when Bitcoin reached its June low. This indicates that a similarly large portion of the supply was underwater. However, the magnitude of those unrealized losses was much smaller. NUPL, which measures unrealized gains and losses across the entire Bitcoin supply, stayed above zero throughout the current cycle instead of turning negative as it did in 2018 and 2022.

That does not mean every Bitcoin holder remains profitable. Individual coins and some long-term holders can still be at a loss while aggregate NUPL stays positive. Likewise, Bitcoin trading above Realized Price does not guarantee that every holder is in profit.

Key Holder Profitability Levels

Glassnode identifies $84,000–$85,000 as the largest long-term-holder supply cluster. The range represents a significant concentration of Bitcoin holdings, but it does not necessarily mean those coins are profitable or that holders will sell.

The report places the mean MVRV price at approximately $96,700. This metric is based on Realized Price and Bitcoin’s long-term average MVRV, and represents the level where average holder profitability returns toward its historical norm. Buyers who entered the market one to two years ago, particularly those who purchased near the top of the range, could also approach break-even around $96,700.

The True Market Mean near $77,000 serves as the main downside reference. These levels help define the current recovery range, while institutional demand and Bitcoin ETF flows provide additional clues about market strength.

Long-term-holder MVRV has remained above 1 during this cycle, indicating that long-term holders are still profitable overall. Selling pressure also appears relatively restrained. Weekly realized profits during the latest recovery remain only a fraction of the levels recorded around the 2024 and 2025 market tops, even with almost all short-term holders back in profit.

Bitcoin’s Next Test Comes at $95K–$97K

The next major resistance zone sits between $95,000 and $97,000, where options positioning overlaps with the mean MVRV price. The report shows the strongest positive gamma around the $95,000 strikes, while negative gamma has accumulated between spot and $92,000. Dealer hedging could amplify price swings below $92,000 before helping to contain moves near $95,000.

Demand has improved, although the data does not confirm that the recovery will continue. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.3 billion in inflows during the five days after the squeeze began, following two weeks of net outflows.

Spot market activity has also picked up. Twenty-four-hour volume has climbed 121% from its August low, more than doubling since the rally started. However, the seven-day average remains around 30% below its level from a year earlier.

The recovery therefore has several supportive factors, but key levels remain in focus. A break below $84,000 could send attention toward the $77,000 True Market Mean. On the upside, a sustained move through $95,000–$97,000 would challenge the major resistance zone. October market levels and broader macroeconomic catalysts could also influence Bitcoin’s next move.

Overall, the current cycle has shown less severe stress than earlier bear markets. Aggregate NUPL has remained positive, Bitcoin has avoided a daily close below Realized Price, and realized profit-taking has stayed relatively low. ETF inflows and spot trading activity have also improved.

The $84,000 level is now important for maintaining the recovery structure. Holding above it would leave the path toward $96,700 open, while a break below $84,000 followed by a test of $77,000 could undermine the bullish recovery case.