Bitcoin Set to See a Bullish Signal for the First Time in Over a Year

Bitcoin is approaching a technical crossover that could mark a major shift in its trend structure, with the cryptocurrency’s key moving averages close to forming a bullish alignment for the first time in more than a year.

BTC is lower on the day, but the longer-term picture is improving. Its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages are converging toward a structure in which short-, medium- and long-term trends all point higher.

For the bullish configuration to take shape, the 50-day average must remain above the 100-day, while the 100-day needs to move above the 200-day. The 50-day average is currently at $79,495, compared with $79,493 for the 100-day and $79,539 for the 200-day. The 100-day average is rising and is close to overtaking the 200-day.

If that crossover occurs, it would recreate the 50-day-over-100-day-over-200-day arrangement last seen when the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025, according to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange.

Moving averages are a common tool for identifying the direction of a market trend. When shorter-term averages rise above longer-term averages, it generally indicates that recent prices are stronger than those seen over longer periods.

The developing pattern follows a strong recovery for bitcoin. BTC gained more than 40% during the third quarter, reaching $87,000. The rally has recently struggled to push beyond approximately $85,000, however, as the U.S. Dollar Index has maintained an extended upward trend.

Subburaj said the latest setup suggests that bitcoin’s recovery has remained intact.

Historical precedents offer both bullish and cautious examples. On Oct. 27, 2020, bitcoin formed a similar alignment around $13,600. It remained in place until May 2021, when BTC had reached a then-record high above $64,000.

The next major example appeared in early November 2023 and lasted until May 2024. Bitcoin more than doubled during that period, rising from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.

But other crossovers failed to produce comparable gains. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days, during which bitcoin rose only from about $106,000 to $112,000. Another setup in June 2024 lasted 20 days and was followed by a roughly 10% decline.

“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. The direction of bitcoin’s price after the signal will determine whether the structure develops into a sustained bull market or fades quickly.

The key confirmation may come during the next correction. Subburaj said bitcoin’s ability to remain above its 50-day moving average could be more significant than the crossover itself.

“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.