Bitcoin Consolidates Near $80K as Markets Await Fed Policy Signals

Bitcoin traded around $80,400 on Monday, recovering from an earlier dip to approximately $79,300 during Asian hours. BTC remained nearly flat since midnight UTC, while altcoins moved in different directions. CoinDesk’s DeFi index (DFX) was the only index to post a gain as markets awaited Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision.

Ether (ETH) slipped 0.2%, reflecting the mixed performance across digital assets. Caution had increased over the weekend after Arthur Hayes said his Maelstrom fund had exited all directional positions, including 6,400 ETH, citing geopolitical tensions and broader economic risks.

U.S. stock futures edged higher following Friday’s equity selloff, with S&P 500 futures gaining about 0.3%. Oil prices also moved lower. U.S. crude fell roughly 2% to around $101 per barrel, while Brent traded near $110. The pullback followed the arrival of Qatari mediators in Tehran on Sunday and President Donald Trump’s announcement that no strike would occur that day, although he did not rule out further action.

Attention has now shifted to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision. The central bank raised rates in September and is scheduled to announce its next move on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data showed a 90% probability of rates remaining unchanged, while the likelihood of another increase in December stood at roughly 80%.

Bitcoin investment products also faced renewed outflows. Spot BTC ETFs lost $138 million on Friday, bringing their combined two-day outflows to $772 million, according to Farside Investors.

Derivatives positioning

Crypto futures saw a slowdown in activity. Total open interest rose 0.85% over 24 hours to $139.9 billion, while trading volume decreased 1.78%. Liquidations fell 71% to $153 million. The taker long-to-short ratio was almost evenly split at 50.34% and 49.66%, suggesting neither side had a clear advantage.

Bitcoin and Ether positioning remained relatively steady. BTC advanced 0.20%, with open interest increasing 0.84%, while volume dropped 7.21%. Ether recorded a 0.23% price gain alongside a 0.45% rise in open interest, indicating limited changes in trader exposure.

Funding rates showed no signs of excessive leverage. Major cryptocurrencies recorded mildly positive funding rates across the 24-hour heatmap. USDE and TRX were among the lowest. The readings suggest traders were not paying unusually large premiums to maintain long positions.

ZEC attracted fresh positions as its price climbed. Open interest increased 8.17%, while the token gained 3.84%. Trading volume rose 19.11%. Funding remained modest at 0.0063%, suggesting the cost of holding the new positions was relatively low.

ENA’s advance brought a sharp increase in market activity. Open interest jumped 16.85% over 24 hours as the token rose 8.36%, while trading volume surged 81.51%. However, open interest fell 2.04% during the latest hour, pointing to some traders closing positions after the rally.

Crude oil was the only top-20 market with a negative funding rate. Oil perpetual futures recorded funding of -0.0077%. Prices fell 1.55%, and open interest declined 7.37%, indicating capital was leaving as the market weakened. Volume rose 190.88%, while remaining positions leaned toward short exposure.

Order-flow signals differed across cryptocurrencies. Open-interest-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) remained positive for XMR, ZEC, GRAM, CC and SOL, indicating stronger market buying than selling. DOGE, LINK, HYPE and XLM posted negative readings, suggesting greater selling pressure.

Bitcoin options continued to reflect demand for downside protection. The Oct. 28 $77,000 put was the most actively traded contract, followed by the Oct. 28 $84,000 call. The one-month skew narrowed to around 12.5% from 14.5%, meaning puts remained more expensive than calls, although the premium had eased.

Ether options showed a similar defensive bias. Four of the six most active contracts were puts, led by the Oct. 29 $2,000 strike. The one-week skew dropped to approximately 8.7% from 13.3%, but puts continued to trade at a premium to calls.

Token talk

Uniswap (UNI) climbed 1.9%, while Ethena (ENA) gained about 1%, despite Maelstrom’s weekend sale of 323,000 UNI and 14 million ENA tokens. The fund is associated with Arthur Hayes.

AI-linked cryptocurrencies faced broader selling pressure. Grass (GRASS), a data network supporting AI training, declined 2.7%, while Near Protocol (NEAR) fell 1.4%. The moves came after Elon Musk warned on Sunday that lenders had cut off credit to approximately 200 cloud providers focused solely on AI.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) advanced around 1% as traders assessed a decision by Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) to raise its stock buyback program to $100 million, more than tripling its previous size. The announcement was made Friday, and the repurchase program applies only to PURR shares, not HYPE tokens.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index slipped to 53 out of 100, down from 58 on Friday, indicating a slight weakening in altcoin performance relative to Bitcoin.