Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Hits Monthly Low as U.S. Buying Pressure Fades

Bitcoin is trading with a growing discount on Coinbase, signaling softer U.S. demand as traders digest the Clarity Act’s Senate setback and prepare for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision.

The Coinbase premium has fallen to its lowest level in four weeks. The move comes after bitcoin’s rally toward $80,000 lost momentum, with the cryptocurrency now trading closer to $75,000.

CryptoQuant’s Coinbase Premium Index measures the percentage difference between bitcoin’s U.S. dollar price on Coinbase and its USDT price on Binance. A positive reading indicates a higher price on Coinbase, while a negative reading represents a discount.

The index was approximately -0.07% Tuesday, compared with around -0.02% the previous day. At a bitcoin price near $75,900, the difference amounts to roughly $50.

Although the spread remains relatively narrow, the move into deeper negative territory suggests that buying pressure on the U.S. exchange has weakened. It also marks a reversal from late August and early September, when the premium became positive for the first time in several months as bitcoin moved toward $80,000.

Federal Reserve Decision Takes Center Stage

Bitcoin is also facing pressure from expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its rate decision later Wednesday, with markets broadly expecting a 25-basis-point increase. If the hike is delivered, the federal funds target range would rise to 3.75%-4%.

Higher borrowing costs can reduce demand and help slow inflation, but a rate increase cannot directly resolve disruptions to oil supplies. That creates a difficult policy trade-off if energy prices remain elevated.

Higher financing costs could also affect companies making large investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure, potentially increasing the expense of funding those projects.

Oil and Bond Markets Add to the Headwinds

Energy prices remain elevated as tensions in the Middle East continue to affect the oil market. Brent crude is trading near $108 per barrel, while WTI is around $104.

If high energy costs persist, inflation could remain under pressure, adding another complication for monetary policy.

The bond market is also signaling tighter financial conditions. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%.

For bitcoin, the combination of declining U.S. exchange demand, higher Treasury yields, elevated oil prices and uncertainty over the future of crypto legislation is keeping pressure on the market as traders await the Fed’s decision.