Bitcoin Climbs as Oil Prices Surge and Equities Slide

Bitcoin advanced during European trading hours even as traditional markets weakened, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s relative resilience amid surging oil prices and heightened geopolitical tensions.

The largest digital asset gained 2.8% since midnight UTC after global markets initially slumped when futures trading began earlier in the day.

In contrast, equity markets faced renewed pressure. Futures linked to the Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 both dropped more than 1.5% since midnight as oil prices surged to as high as $115 per barrel—their highest level since June 2022. Precious metals also declined, with gold falling 1.6% and silver dropping 1.1%, weakening the traditional safe-haven narrative as investors moved toward the U.S. dollar.

Meanwhile, sentiment around bitcoin appears to be improving. The asset has remained relatively stable despite the ongoing conflict involving Iran and disruptions to global energy supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to trading firm QCP Capital, bitcoin’s role in the financial system may be evolving.

“While BTC has yet to fully earn its digital gold narrative, its practical use case as a digital escape hatch is becoming increasingly relevant, particularly in Gulf countries, amid episodes of currency volatility and political uncertainty,” the firm wrote in a Monday note.

Derivatives positioning

Recent volatility has triggered significant liquidations across crypto derivatives markets. Exchanges have wiped out nearly $400 million in crypto futures positions over the past 24 hours. Bearish wagers on oil were hit especially hard as crude prices surged toward $115 per barrel.

Open interest in bitcoin futures remains near weekly lows at roughly 650,000 BTC, suggesting the derivatives market has yet to fully participate in Monday’s rally. By contrast, open interest in Ether futures climbed to around 13 million tokens.

Open interest in XRP rose to 1.72 billion tokens—the highest level since Feb. 24—while a modest increase was also seen in Solana futures, indicating fresh capital entering those markets.

Meanwhile, open interest in tokens such as PAX Gold, Avalanche, and Litecoin declined over the past day, suggesting some investors are reducing exposure as prices rebound.

Volatility metrics for bitcoin and ether remain stable. Their 30-day implied volatility indexes have shown little change, reflecting a relatively calm crypto market despite sharp moves in Asian equities and oil prices.

On the derivatives exchange Deribit, bitcoin and ether put options continue to trade at a premium to call options, signaling ongoing demand for downside protection. However, that premium has remained largely unchanged from last week, indicating that the recent oil rally has not significantly increased hedging activity.

The implied volatility term structure for bitcoin also remains in backwardation, meaning traders expect greater volatility in the near term than in the longer term—a pattern consistent with the uncertainty surrounding the ongoing geopolitical conflict.

Token market activity

Altcoins broadly performed well overnight. Privacy-focused tokens such as Dash, Monero, and Zcash posted gains ranging from 3.8% to 5.2%.

Decentralized finance tokens also showed strong momentum. Ether.fi and Morpho both outperformed bitcoin and ether during the same period.

Market breadth across altcoins appears to be improving. The “Altcoin Season” indicator tracked by CoinMarketCap currently stands at 36 out of 100—significantly higher than the February low of 22.

Among sector indexes, the best performer over the past 24 hours was the CoinDesk Computing Select Index, which includes tokens such as Chainlink and Bittensor and rose 2.7%. It was followed by the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Select Index, which gained 0.92% since Sunday morning.

On the downside, the institutional-focused token Canton Network Token declined 3.4% over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, Worldcoin—the project linked to Sam Altman—fell about 2% during the same period.