Asia Morning Briefing: Saylor Braces for a Slowing Market; Polymarket Traders Hold Firm on Expectations for Major Strategy Moves

CryptoQuant’s newest report signals a notable shift in Strategy’s approach, with the firm trimming its bitcoin purchases and expanding its USD reserves as it braces for a potentially softer market. Even so, prediction markets continue to assume a strategy rooted in consistent accumulation.

The firm’s analysis points to the possibility of a multi-month BTC pullback, a view that clashes with sentiment on Polymarket, where traders continue to price in behavior reminiscent of Strategy’s aggressive 2021 buying pattern.

CryptoQuant notes that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury operation is pivoting from high-velocity accumulation toward balance-sheet protection. The establishment of a dedicated USD reserve — alongside language acknowledging the option to hedge or sell in moments of stress — suggests a more defensive posture.

Despite these hints, prediction markets are largely unfazed. Polymarket odds still assign only a minimal chance to a first-quarter bitcoin sale, and expectations for routine small buys remain strong. Traders continue to treat these purchases as a near-certainty, even as their size steadily contracts.

The likelihood of any buy exceeding 1,000 BTC sits around 40%–45%. According to CryptoQuant, these smaller, brand-aligned “touch-ups” — with monthly accumulation now down more than 90% from last year — are becoming standard. They help preserve Strategy’s accumulation narrative but have little impact on actual supply dynamics.

Average purchase size has dropped sharply from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year. At the same time, DAT inflows have weakened to their lowest levels since mid-June, underscoring that bitcoin treasury firms are no longer a major force absorbing supply.

Taken together, the slowdown in treasury buying, softer DAT flows and a more cautious MSTR point to a changing supply environment as crypto approaches 2026. Bitcoin’s ability to regain momentum will hinge on new demand filling the gap left by last cycle’s institutional accumulation.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin rebounded from an early decline to $91,800 and stabilized near $93,000, though its recent 10% two-day rally is now slowing at resistance around the 2025 yearly open near $93,400.

ETH: Ether pushed above $3,100 and touched a two-week high around $3,200 after rising 3.5% on the day.

Gold: Gold eased slightly to just over $4,200 as traders awaited key U.S. inflation data, though geopolitical risks and a softening dollar outlook could support a rebound.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific equities were mixed Thursday, but Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix gained roughly 1.3% following stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data that lifted Wall Street and fueled expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.