Ark Invest points to bitcoin and tokenization as catalysts for the next phase of crypto growth

Ark Invest said accelerating institutional adoption of bitcoin and the expansion of asset tokenization are pushing digital assets toward large-scale adoption, potentially lifting the sector’s value into the tens of trillions of dollars by the end of the decade.

In its Big Ideas 2026 report, the asset manager said the convergence of blockchain innovation, regulatory clarity and institutional participation marks a structural shift for digital assets, rather than incremental progress.

Ark argued that bitcoin, smart contract networks and tokenized real-world assets are moving from experimentation to scale faster than many market participants expect.

The firm highlighted bitcoin’s growing role as an institutional asset class. It said U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds and public companies raised their combined bitcoin holdings to roughly 12% of total supply in 2025, up from under 9% a year earlier. Over the same period, bitcoin delivered stronger risk-adjusted returns than most major cryptocurrencies and broader crypto indexes, while price drawdowns from record highs became more muted.

Ark expects bitcoin to remain the largest digital asset by market capitalization. The firm estimated that bitcoin and smart contract networks together could expand at an annualized rate of about 60% to reach roughly $28 trillion by 2030, with bitcoin accounting for around 70% of that total.

The report projected bitcoin’s market value could increase from about $2 trillion today to roughly $16 trillion by the end of the decade, driven by its role as “digital gold” and growing institutional participation.

Ark also identified stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets as key drivers of broader adoption. The firm said improving regulatory clarity in the U.S. has prompted financial institutions to revisit stablecoin and tokenization strategies, helping push stablecoin transaction volumes to levels comparable to, or exceeding, major legacy payment systems.

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries, commodities and eventually equities were cited as early signs of a broader migration of financial assets onto public blockchains. While the tokenized asset market remains relatively small today, Ark forecast it could exceed $11 trillion by 2030 as sovereign debt, bank deposits and public equities increasingly move on-chain.

Ark added that decentralized finance platforms and crypto-native issuers are closing the gap with traditional fintech firms in areas such as assets under management, revenue efficiency and institutional relevance.

Taken together, the firm said these trends point to a future in which public blockchains form the backbone of money, contracts and ownership at global scale. While adoption is expected to unfold unevenly, Ark said investors and institutions that recognize the transition early may be better positioned as digital assets become more deeply integrated into the financial system.