Jurrien Timmer of Fidelity expects a lackluster 2026 as Bitcoin’s four-year cycle holds steady.

Fidelity’s global macro director, Jurrien Timmer, remains bullish on Bitcoin over the long term but is cautious about the year ahead.

Lately, some prominent voices in crypto have questioned Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood have argued that with ETFs, institutional adoption, and regulatory support, Bitcoin is now firmly part of the mainstream financial system and may not follow the same boom-and-bust patterns of the past.

The four-year cycle, historically linked to Bitcoin’s halving events, has long shaped the market. Each halving reduces the block reward for miners by 50%, creating a supply shock that typically triggers a major price surge. After these peaks, Bitcoin has traditionally seen declines of roughly 80% before slowly climbing toward the next halving.

Looking at previous cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the pattern has largely held. The 2024 halving saw Bitcoin rally to a peak of $125,000 in October 2025, followed by the current bear market.

Timmer, an early advocate for Bitcoin in traditional finance, sees the cycle as still intact. “If we line up all the bull markets, the October high of $125,000 after 145 weeks of rallying fits well with expectations,” he said.

As for the future, Timmer expects a period of consolidation. Historically, post-halving bear markets last about a year. “My sense is that 2026 could be a ‘year off’ for Bitcoin,” he added, noting that support is likely around $65,000 to $75,000.