The cryptocurrency’s realized cap holds firm over $1 trillion, challenging assumptions around the four-year cycle.

Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Hits $1.125 Trillion, Challenges Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has reached an all-time high of $1.125 trillion, suggesting the cryptocurrency remains in a bull market despite a near-40% price drop over the past 10 weeks.

Realized cap measures each bitcoin at the price it last moved, reflecting actual capital inflows rather than speculative trading activity seen in total market capitalization. Glassnode data shows the metric continued rising through the 36% correction from October’s record high, although it has recently plateaued around $1.125 trillion. A similar pause occurred during the April 2025 tariff-driven selloff, when bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 before rebounding to new highs.

In contrast, during the 2022 bear market, realized cap fell from approximately $470 billion to $385 billion as investors sold at lower cost bases—a trend not evident in the current correction.

Four-Year Cycle Under Question

Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk that bitcoin could defy the traditional four-year cycle, with upside surprises possible in 2026. He pointed to resilient global growth, ongoing rate cuts, and a steepening yield curve, all factors that could weaken the U.S. dollar—an environment historically supportive for bitcoin.

“Bitcoin is materially underpricing the macro backdrop, to a degree last seen during the Covid recession and the FTX collapse, despite no signs of a U.S. recession and evidence of re-accelerating growth,” Dragosch said.