Bitcoin fluctuates sharply ahead of U.S. CPI release

U.S. inflation data for November, expected to show a 3.1% rise in the consumer price index (CPI), could influence Federal Reserve policy and market expectations.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been volatile over the past 24 hours, swinging between $86,000 and $90,000 as traders await the report. The CPI release is the first comprehensive look at price pressures since October, when a government shutdown canceled the data, leaving the Fed without recent guidance. Consensus estimates forecast headline CPI at 3.1% year-on-year, up from 3% in October, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is also expected at 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.

“This report is particularly important because the October cancellation left the Fed and markets partially in the dark,” said Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge University. Investors will focus on whether disinflation in services is holding and whether tariff-driven price pressures are fading.

If the data confirm easing inflation, markets may price in additional rate cuts in 2026, potentially boosting risk appetite, including crypto. However, bitcoin has not reacted strongly to recent economic releases, including Tuesday’s jobs report, which showed the highest unemployment rate since September 2021.

Meanwhile, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields remain above 4%, reflecting persistent uncertainty about inflation and Fed policy. A hotter-than-expected CPI could push yields higher, creating additional pressure on risk assets like bitcoin.

Crypto-specific risks also remain. MSCI is reviewing digital-asset treasury companies for index eligibility, potentially excluding firms with over 50% crypto exposure. QCP Capital warns this could trigger passive outflows of up to $2.8 billion, adding stress to an already fragile market.