Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns that bitcoin (BTC $87,454.37) has broken its parabolic growth curve, raising the possibility of a drop to $25,000.
Brandt’s analysis is based on bitcoin’s historical post-halving bull cycles, which typically last 12–18 months before giving way to bear markets with 70%–80% pullbacks from record highs.
Each cycle has seen diminishing returns: after the 2012 halving, BTC rose roughly 100-fold to $1,240; the 2016 halving produced a 74-fold increase; and the 2020 halving saw an eight-fold gain.
The current cycle, which began after the April 2024 halving, pushed bitcoin to a record $126,000 by October. Since then, BTC has pulled back to just under $90,000, cutting through the parabolic curve that has historically defined major uptrends.
“The current parabolic advance has been violated. 20% of ATH = $25,240,” Brandt wrote on X.
On a log-scale chart dating back to 2010, Brandt highlights four steep arcs representing previous cycles’ explosive climbs. Historically, breaks below these arcs have signaled the end of bull runs—the recent breach of the fourth arc may suggest a similar scenario is unfolding.
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