BTC and S&P 500 Could See Year-End Gains, Vol Metrics Indicate

Volatility measures for Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 are retreating, signaling a potential year-end rally.

Volmex’s 30-day Bitcoin implied volatility index (BVIV) dropped to 51% annualized after spiking to nearly 65% during the mid-November sell-off from $96,000 to $80,000. Deribit’s DVOL shows similar swings, while the VIX, tracking S&P 500 volatility, fell from 28% to 17%, reflecting a broader calming of market panic.

The drop suggests fear is easing and bulls are regaining control. Bitcoin has reclaimed over $91,000, displaying a negative correlation with its volatility index — a trend that increasingly mirrors traditional asset behavior.

The decline in volatility coincides with rising expectations for a December Fed rate cut. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, told CoinDesk:

“Markets are stabilizing as rate-cut odds surged from 39% to nearly 87%. Traders remain hedged but less aggressively, reflecting growing confidence.”