$1.7 billion is riding on Bitcoin pushing past $100K, even as traders avoid pricing in new highs.

A major options trade placed Monday suggests a trader is betting on a steady Bitcoin climb into year-end—one strong enough to clear $100,000, but not reach new all-time highs.

Bitcoin BTC$90,772.41 has bounced back to roughly $88,000, recovering sharply from last week’s lows near $80,000. The rebound has been supported by shifting macro expectations, with traders increasingly anticipating a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December. However, spot ETF flows have yet to mirror the improving sentiment: the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $151 million in net outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue.

Even so, a block trader entered a sizable call condor worth 20,000 BTC in notional value—about $1.76 billion—with strikes designed to profit from a controlled rise toward the $100K–$118K range.

Deribit confirmed the transaction, noting:
“A long-dated 100k/106k/112k/118k call condor for Dec ’25 was lifted—signaling a structured bullish view that BTC reaches $100K–$118K without a blowout rally.”

The strategy uses four call strikes with the same expiry: long $100K, short $106K, short $112K, and long $118K. The payoff is maximized if Bitcoin finishes the year between $106,000 and $112,000, reflecting expectations of continued upside but not a surge beyond $118,000. The positioning also indicates the trader does not foresee Bitcoin hitting new highs above $126,000 this year.

Block trades—large, negotiated transactions executed off-exchange—allow institutions to take major positions without disrupting market prices. Monday’s hefty condor underscores the increasing sophistication of traders who are mapping not just the direction of Bitcoin’s rally, but the precise range in which they expect it to land.