Polymarket Forecasts Suggest U.S. Government Shutdown Will Last Long but Stay Below Record Lengths

Polymarket bettors are forecasting that the U.S. government will remain closed past October 15, yet the shutdown is unlikely to surpass the record set during the first Trump administration in 2018–2019.

The market currently assigns a 72% probability that government operations will resume on or after October 15, reflecting $1.4 million in trading volume within a $4 million contract covering that date range.

Another contract tracking the total duration of the shutdown indicates a 67% chance it will last between 10 and 29 days. The likelihood of it extending beyond a month—enough to set a new record—is only 27%.

Some observers note that the ongoing shutdown may have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent rally, pushing prices above $125,000.

Meanwhile, Congress remains deadlocked, with recent funding proposals failing to secure the votes needed to reopen the government.