XRP Triangle Pattern Sets Up $1.60 Target Above Key $1.38 Level

XRP finished the previous session near $1.35 after reaching $1.43 two sessions earlier. Analyst Ali Martinez sees $1.38 as the critical resistance level XRP must reclaim to validate a bullish breakout. If buyers push the token above that level, the next potential target could be around $1.60, although the bullish setup remains conditional on XRP holding its current trading range.

Martinez, who shares analysis under the name Ali Charts on X, has identified a triangle pattern forming between $1.31-$1.35 support and $1.38 resistance. With XRP approaching the triangle’s apex, maintaining the lower support band is important for keeping the bullish structure intact. A decisive move above $1.38 could confirm the breakout and potentially accelerate the upward move.

However, the setup would weaken if XRP falls below $1.31. Martinez said a breakdown at that level could invalidate the near-term bullish structure and potentially cause the existing support zone to act as resistance during a rebound.

XRP’s $1.38 Breakout Level Faces Heavy Supply

Cost-basis data shows that more than 4.8 billion XRP were acquired between $1.31 and $1.38. The large concentration of holdings in this range could create a significant demand zone if investors continue to defend their purchase levels.

The next major supply area sits higher. Approximately 1.99 billion XRP were bought around $1.60, followed by another 1.98 billion XRP near $1.68. This concentration suggests that $1.60 could become a substantial resistance level after a move above $1.38, rather than serving as an immediate upside target.

Futures Positioning Shows Less Leverage

The derivatives market offers another constructive signal. Total XRP futures open interest dropped roughly 16%, from 2.77 billion XRP on August 17 to 2.34 billion XRP on August 31, while XRP’s price increased by almost 40% over the same period.

The divergence indicates that the rally occurred even as traders reduced futures exposure, suggesting the advance was not primarily fueled by an aggressive buildup of leverage.

CME open interest, however, rose about 36% to 387 million XRP. As a result, CME’s share of total XRP futures exposure increased from approximately 10% to 17%.

That change may point to greater involvement from professional and institutional traders, although CME contracts can also serve as hedging instruments. The increase therefore does not necessarily represent a direct bullish wager on XRP.

The $1.38 threshold is also positioned near a notable moving-average resistance zone. XRP would need to break and hold above this level convincingly to strengthen the bullish outlook and overcome the technical resistance still hanging over the market.