XRP ETF Inflows Near $300M as Q3 Supply Overhang Hits 45%

XRP surged more than 45% during Q3, while U.S. spot XRP ETFs attracted roughly $307.9 million. Even though cumulative ETF inflows have moved close to $1.8 billion, XRP entered October at around $1.50 after multiple attempts to break through the $1.70 resistance area. The scale of ETF buying has not yet been enough to establish a higher market-clearing price.

The price action indicates that fresh fund demand is being met by selling whenever XRP moves higher. Buyers continue to support the token, but sellers are supplying enough XRP into those bids to keep prices near $1.50 rather than allowing a sustained breakout.

Seven-day altcoin inflow transactions on exchanges reportedly reached their highest level since October 2025. CryptoQuant characterized the increase as broad-based, rather than being driven primarily by a few large wallets.

Sending XRP to an exchange does not necessarily mean the holder intends to sell. Such transfers nevertheless increase the amount of tokens that could potentially enter the market as sell-side liquidity. That distinction becomes important after a quarterly gain of more than 45%, when some holders may be inclined to realize profits around previous highs even as ETF buyers continue accumulating.

Additional supply can soak up new buying without causing an immediate price decline. It can also keep XRP below a breakout level until the number of willing sellers falls. Broader exchange balances and supply indicators help provide market context, but they cannot establish which specific holders sold during an individual rally.

XRP ETFs recorded no net flows on September 29 and 30 after stronger purchases earlier in the month. The two flat sessions do not change the overall quarterly inflow trend, but they demonstrate that marginal demand can shift over short periods. Cumulative ETF flows alone cannot determine whether buyers are currently absorbing each new batch of available supply.

$1.54–$1.70 Is the Critical XRP Price Range

An hourly close above $1.54 represents the first technical hurdle identified in the primary report as initial breakout confirmation. A successful move above that level could leave room for an advance of roughly 10% toward $1.70. However, reaching that area would not automatically show that the broader supply overhang has been removed.

XRP has repeatedly struggled to sustain gains in the mid-$1.50s, with late-September moves above $1.60 eventually losing momentum. The late-August swing high near $1.70 is the more important resistance zone. A sustained move above that level would indicate that demand is absorbing sufficient supply to potentially alter the existing market structure rather than simply producing another brief rally.

The first support area lies around $1.48–$1.50, near the level where XRP began October. Another rejection followed by a break below this range would place the recent base under pressure. Derivatives positioning and leverage can affect the speed and scale of price movements, although they cannot reveal which spot-market participants are supplying the tokens.

These levels outline the current XRP setup without requiring a directional forecast.

What Would XRP Need to Break Higher?

An hourly close above $1.54, followed by sustained strength through the mid-$1.50s, would shift attention toward the late-August high near $1.70. Reclaiming and holding above that resistance would provide evidence that ETF and spot-market demand is absorbing the XRP supply that has previously capped rallies.

If XRP is rejected again and falls through $1.48–$1.50, it would indicate that sellers remain active despite continued fund demand. That would not establish that ETF buyers have withdrawn or identify the source of the selling. It would simply show that available buying interest has not yet cleared enough supply to support higher prices.

Ripple’s relationship with XRP does not change the immediate technical picture. The key factor is whether demand can absorb the supply appearing at the levels where previous advances stalled. Until XRP establishes itself above $1.70, cumulative ETF inflows should be treated as a demand signal rather than evidence that a breakout is imminent.