Van Straten believes that larger groups than U.S. ETFs or MicroStrategy are now setting the direction for Bitcoin’s price.

Since September, both MicroStrategy and U.S.-listed spot ETFs have added around 200,000 bitcoin to their holdings. The surge in bitcoin’s price, which began following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election on November 5, has seen the cryptocurrency rise from $67,000 to near $100,000. This price surge has been mirrored by a significant increase in bitcoin’s trading volume, which has now surpassed $100 billion.

Data from Checkonchain reveals that bitcoin futures trading volume reached an all-time high of approximately $120 billion on November 17, nearly doubling since the election. However, since this peak, futures trading volume has stabilized around $100 billion. Likewise, spot trading volumes have risen from around $6 billion to $12 billion, with spot-listed U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing daily trade volumes of $4 billion.

Bitcoin remains within a crucial $100,000 price range, fluctuating just above and below this key level. One of the primary factors contributing to this price volatility is the considerable selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs), who have held bitcoin for over 155 days. Since September, LTHs have sold 843,113 BTC, while short-term holders (STHs) — those who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days — have accumulated 1,081,633 BTC. This means that LTHs have been selling approximately 9,960 BTC per day, while STHs are acquiring 12,432 BTC per day.

In comparison to LTH and STH trading volumes, major players like MicroStrategy and U.S. ETFs are also significant contributors. MicroStrategy, a self-identified bitcoin development company, holds 423,650 BTC, representing just over 2% of the total bitcoin supply. U.S. ETFs collectively hold more than 1 million BTC.

Since September, MicroStrategy has added 197,250 BTC, averaging 2,168 BTC per day, while U.S. ETFs have acquired 205,000 BTC, averaging 2,253 BTC per day. The balance held by U.S. ETFs has grown from 916,000 BTC to 1.12 million BTC.

For bitcoin to definitively break above the $100,000 threshold, it will require long-term holders to slow down their selling activity or for larger institutional cohorts to enter the market and absorb the available supply.