Trump Ethics Deal Rumors Send Clarity Bill Approval Odds Higher on Polymarket

Prediction market participants raised the probability of the crypto market structure bill passing in 2026 to 43%, rebounding from last week’s all-time low. However, the reports triggering the shift have not been officially confirmed, and no updated bill language has been published.

Polymarket traders boosted the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law after reports claimed President Trump had agreed to the ethics provision that had been delaying progress on the legislation.

The likelihood of the crypto market structure bill being signed this year increased to around 43% on Monday, up from 32% on Friday, which marked the lowest reading since the prediction market launched in January.

The move higher came after reports suggested lawmakers had resolved the final sticking point in the lengthy negotiations surrounding the bill.

However, the legislation remains surrounded by uncertainty. A source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that Democrats have not seen the latest bill text, and no official draft has been made public. The White House and the offices of the senators involved have also not commented on the reports.

The ethics provision has been the biggest remaining challenge for the Clarity Act, which is designed to establish a comprehensive federal regulatory system for digital assets. The bill would divide oversight responsibilities between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The controversy has focused on concerns over whether politicians and public officials should be able to benefit financially from crypto ventures while holding office. The issue has gained attention due to Trump’s involvement with memecoins and his family’s stake in World Liberty Financial, which financial disclosures showed generated millions in revenue.

The ethics language was reportedly discussed during a July 16 meeting between Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate is working toward a potential vote before the beginning of August.

Crypto markets continued their upward move on Monday as speculation around the bill circulated. Bitcoin traded near $66,300, gaining about 3% over the previous 24 hours, while Ether and XRP each advanced roughly 4%.

Although the reported progress on the Clarity Act supported market confidence, traders said the main catalyst behind the rally was the recovery in artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks. Strength in chipmakers such as Samsung and SK Hynix helped revive risk appetite, while the potential legislative breakthrough provided an additional boost.