A wave of massive public listings from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is set to draw more than $240 billion in capital between June and year-end—an amount larger than all venture-backed U.S. IPOs combined since 2000. Because crypto markets tap into the same pool of risk capital, the impact could extend well beyond equities.
SpaceX is expected to lead the charge. The company has filed confidentially with the SEC, aiming to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If it goes public in June at those levels, the deal would easily surpass Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion IPO in 2019, becoming the largest market debut on record. On Polymarket, traders currently price in a 65% chance of a June listing and a 53% probability that SpaceX closes its first day above a $2 trillion valuation.
Additional supply is expected later in the year. OpenAI is reportedly preparing for a fourth-quarter IPO near a $1 trillion valuation, while Anthropic could debut in October with a raise exceeding $60 billion. The clustering of these deals within a six-month span sets up a significant liquidity event across global markets.
Analysts caution that such periods often follow a familiar pattern: strong bullish sentiment ahead of listings, followed by capital rotation once new shares are allocated. Alex Good, founder of the crypto AI project Post Fiat, recently described the current environment as a “max bid” phase, where banks aggressively promote AI equities ahead of IPOs to maximize underwriting revenue.
Research from MSCI suggests that megacap IPOs could trigger billions of dollars in index-related flows, reshaping sector allocations and tightening liquidity for assets outside the newly listed कंपनies.
Cryptocurrencies—including Bitcoin and Ethereum—are part of this same risk-on ecosystem. Over recent cycles, their correlation with major equity indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 has increased, meaning capital redirected into IPO participation could reduce demand for digital assets.
There is also a historical precedent. Coinbase went public on April 14, 2021, the same day bitcoin peaked near $64,800 before falling roughly 50% in the following weeks. What appeared to signal mainstream adoption instead coincided with a top, as capital rotated elsewhere.
Although SpaceX is not a crypto-native company, its IPO still has direct links to digital asset flows. Roughly 30% of the offering—around $22 billion—is expected to be allocated to retail investors, a significantly higher share than typical for deals of this size. That allocation could draw funds away from crypto markets, including bitcoin and higher-risk altcoins.
SpaceX also reportedly holds 8,285 BTC, valued at about $600 million and custodied with Coinbase Prime, making it one of the first major IPO candidates to go public while holding a sizable bitcoin position under updated accounting standards.
The key question is how crypto performs during the IPO roadshow period in May and June. If prices weaken, it may signal that investors are freeing up capital for IPO allocations. If bitcoin continues to rally, however, it could indicate that structural demand—such as inflows into spot ETFs—has reduced crypto’s dependence on broader liquidity cycles.
Unlike Coinbase’s $86 billion debut in 2021, SpaceX represents a much larger and more complex market event. With multiple mega listings arriving in quick succession, the coming months will test whether crypto markets can withstand the pull of one of the largest capital rotations in recent history.
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