NYDIG: Bitcoin ETFs, Stablecoins, and DAT Reversals Signal Capital Flight
Spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded persistent outflows totaling $3.55 billion in November, while stablecoin supply has declined, suggesting that capital is exiting the crypto market, according to NYDIG.
Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, said bitcoin’s drop to $84,000 is being driven more by structural market mechanics than sentiment. He noted that the key drivers behind the 2024–25 rally have now shifted into reverse.
ETF Redemptions Continue
Spot bitcoin ETFs, once major sources of demand, are now seeing steady redemptions. These funds injected billions into bitcoin in the first half of 2025, but five-day flow data have recently turned negative. November’s outflows are on track to be the largest monthly withdrawal since the ETFs’ launch, approaching February’s $3.56 billion record.
Stablecoin Supply Falls
Stablecoins are showing a similar trend. Total supply has declined for the first time in months, and the algorithmic USDE token has lost nearly half its supply since the October 10 liquidation. Cipolaro said this reflects capital leaving the market, not moving to the sidelines.
DAT Reversals Add Pressure
Corporate treasury trades tied to DAT share premiums have also reversed. As premiums flipped to discounts, companies that previously issued stock to buy bitcoin are now selling assets or repurchasing shares. Sequans, for instance, sold BTC this month to reduce debt.
“While these reversals mark a shift from a strong demand engine to a headwind, no DAT shows financial distress,” Cipolaro noted.
Major Purchases Fail to Halt Decline
Even large purchases from Strategy and El Salvador failed to stop bitcoin’s drop. Cipolaro said the $19 billion October 10 liquidation triggered a feedback loop where mechanisms that once drove prices higher are now reinforcing declines.
Investor Guidance
Cipolaro urged investors to “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” noting that the long-term thesis remains intact but near-term conditions are dominated by cyclical forces.
“Volatility is likely, but long-term conviction remains essential for investors,” he added.
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