Galaxy Signals Bitcoin Buying Opportunity as Prices Face Pressure

Galaxy Digital believes Bitcoin could be approaching a fresh accumulation phase, arguing that improving market signals, sustained demand from spot ETFs, and concerns over U.S. government debt may create favorable conditions for a rebound.

Bitcoin has hovered around $80,000, struggling to establish a clear upward trend as investors weigh the possibility of another correction. Galaxy, however, sees reasons to believe the market has already passed its worst phase.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, said Bitcoin likely exited its bear market in June and has since entered a phase of accumulation that has preceded previous advances.

“We think the bear market ended in June and that bitcoin is in the accumulation phase that has preceded every prior advance,” Thorn wrote in a report titled Why Now Is the Time to Add and Hold BTC.

Galaxy Digital, founded in 2018 by Mike Novogratz, is a New York-based financial services and digital asset company traded on Nasdaq under the ticker GLXY.

Bitcoin Shows Signs of a Potential Market Bottom

Bitcoin was trading near $80,000 at the time of the report, approximately 38% above its June low below $58,000. However, the asset remained around 35% beneath its record high of more than $126,000. Reaching that peak again would require a rally of roughly 53%.

One indicator supporting Galaxy’s outlook is Bitcoin’s recovery above its 50-week moving average. The cryptocurrency had spent 44 weeks below the level before reclaiming it, followed by five consecutive weekly closes above the average.

Thorn also pointed to changes in investor positioning. Asset managers’ net long exposure through CME Bitcoin futures had fallen 57% from the week Bitcoin reached its all-time high. Meanwhile, several large trading firms reduced their positions in spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Galaxy interprets these changes as evidence that speculative traders have reduced their exposure, potentially leaving a more stable investor base.

“The fast money has left, the base stayed, and everything else is priced for perfection,” Thorn said.

Spot ETF Demand Continues to Support BTC

Demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained an important part of the recovery thesis. Galaxy reported that these funds accumulated around 87,000 BTC following Bitcoin’s June low, even as the asset struggled to regain its previous highs.

The firm also observed a decline in arbitrage-driven activity, suggesting that ETF-related flows may increasingly reflect underlying investor demand rather than trading strategies designed to exploit price differences.

Macroeconomic conditions provide another potential catalyst. Rising U.S. government debt, persistent budget deficits, and growing interest expenses could strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as an asset with a predetermined supply.

Galaxy also highlighted a shift in investor attention toward stablecoins and tokenization as interest in Bitcoin has faded. Thorn sees similarities between this environment and market conditions that have appeared near previous bottoms.

Bitcoin Must Hold Above a Key Support Level

Despite its constructive outlook, Galaxy warned that several risks could undermine a recovery. A broader market sell-off, the disruptive effects of artificial intelligence, and future quantum-computing threats remain concerns for investors.

The firm identified $76,540 as a critical level for Bitcoin’s weekly price structure. A weekly close below this threshold, followed by an inability to reclaim it within a month, would weaken the argument that the market has already established a bottom.

For now, Galaxy believes Bitcoin’s technical recovery, continued ETF accumulation, and concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability create a potential foundation for further gains. The firm sees a path toward the previous record high, although Bitcoin must maintain its improving structure for that outlook to hold.