Wall Street giant Citigroup has trimmed its 12-month price targets for bitcoin and ether, pointing to softer ETF demand assumptions, weak onchain activity and fading momentum around U.S. crypto legislation.
The bank now expects bitcoin (BTC) to reach $112,000 over the next year, down from a previous forecast of $143,000. Ether (ETH) is projected to climb to $3,175, lowered from an earlier $4,304 estimate.
Despite the revisions, the outlook still implies notable upside from current levels. Bitcoin was trading near $74,000 at the time of writing, while ether hovered around $2,330.
Citi said ETF inflows remain the primary bullish driver, though it has scaled back expectations. The bank now assumes roughly $10 billion in bitcoin ETF inflows and $2.5 billion for ether over the next 12 months, even as recent demand has shown modest resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty.
More broadly, crypto markets have struggled to regain momentum after bitcoin’s record run in October. Prices have drifted lower as risk appetite cooled and post-halving enthusiasm faded. Bitcoin has traded below key technical levels, while ether has underperformed, weighed down by sluggish network activity. Still, steady ETF inflows have helped prevent deeper declines despite ongoing macro and geopolitical headwinds.
According to Citi, the regulatory outlook in the U.S. remains a key swing factor. The bank noted that the window for passing major digital asset legislation this year is narrowing, with market-implied odds slipping to around 60%. While global regulatory trends remain constructive, a comprehensive U.S. framework is seen as a stronger catalyst for institutional capital than incremental policy changes.
At the center of this uncertainty is the CLARITY Act, a broad market-structure proposal that has passed the House but remains stalled in the Senate as lawmakers debate competing versions.
The bill is considered pivotal because it would clarify how digital assets are classified and determine oversight between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — a longstanding source of regulatory ambiguity for the industry. By defining token categories and establishing registration frameworks for exchanges, the legislation aims to reduce uncertainty and unlock greater institutional participation.
Citi also pointed to weakening market momentum since bitcoin’s October peak, citing futures liquidations, positioning fatigue and prices holding below key technical thresholds. In the near term, bitcoin may continue to trade within a range, with $70,000 viewed as a key psychological level tied to pre-election pricing.
The bank outlined a range of scenarios. In a bullish case, stronger end-user adoption — particularly via ETFs — could push bitcoin to $165,000 and ether to $4,488. In a bearish scenario shaped by recessionary conditions, targets fall to $58,000 for BTC and $1,198 for ETH.
Ether’s outlook, Citi noted, is more uncertain due to its reliance on network activity, which has recently been subdued. However, potential catalysts remain, including growth in stablecoins, rising tokenization trends and possible regulatory developments around decentralized finance, all of which could support future demand.
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