Bitcoin Whale Losses $15M on $35M BTC Position as October Sell-Off Deepens

A Bitcoin whale has moved 438.37 BTC, valued at approximately $35.38 million, to Coinbase Prime, drawing attention to a potential $15 million loss on the holdings. According to Arkham Intelligence, the transfer occurred early on October 28, around 16 months after the wallet withdrew 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody at an average price of $105,271.

The transaction comes as Bitcoin struggles to maintain its usual October strength. BTC is trading near $81,445, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours but down 2.5% since October began. With only three days left in the month, the cryptocurrency must recover its opening price to avoid another negative monthly close.

The whale’s transfer has raised concerns about whether major holders are preparing to sell and which upcoming catalysts could determine Bitcoin’s next move.

Bitcoin News: Are Whales Moving BTC Toward Selling?

The latest transaction confirms that one large Bitcoin holder has transferred funds to an exchange, although broader market activity does not yet indicate widespread selling.

The wallet, identified as bc1q9kaa…l77q, had remained inactive since June 24, 2025, when it received 615.4 BTC from Coinbase Prime Custody. At 00:48 UTC on October 28, the address transferred 438.37 BTC to a Coinbase Prime deposit wallet, leaving 177.03 BTC behind, according to blockchain records.

Transfers to exchanges are commonly viewed as potential selling signals because they make assets easier to trade. However, the wallet owner has not disclosed the purpose of the transaction. Coinbase Prime also supports institutional lending and hedging, so the transfer does not necessarily mean the Bitcoin will be sold immediately.

Meanwhile, broader exchange data showed net Bitcoin outflows of 12,570 BTC, worth roughly $1.01 billion, on October 27, according to preliminary CryptoQuant figures. This followed net inflows exceeding 7,000 BTC the previous day.

Analyst Darkfost also noted that Binance’s 30-day average of whale deposits had declined from $5.9 billion in late August to $3.8 billion. Retail deposits, by contrast, have increased since September.

These figures suggest that Bitcoin whale activity remains mixed, with individual exchange deposits occurring alongside broader withdrawals from trading platforms.

Bitcoin Needs $83,624 to Avoid a Red October

Bitcoin’s performance in October has disappointed investors, threatening its historical reputation for seasonal strength.

BTC opened the month at $83,624 on Binance and rallied to $87,220 on October 2. The upward momentum subsequently faded, pushing the price down to $79,221 on October 24.

To end October with a gain, Bitcoin must close above $83,624. From its current level of $81,445, that would require a recovery of approximately 2.7%.

If BTC fails to regain the monthly opening price, 2026 would mark its first consecutive losing Octobers in more than a decade. October 2025 ended down 3.9% on Binance, while the only other negative October performances since 2013 occurred in 2014 and 2018.

The final trading sessions could therefore determine whether Bitcoin stages a late-month rebound or extends its recent losses.

Upcoming Catalysts That Could Move Bitcoin

Several economic announcements and market events could influence Bitcoin’s direction in the coming weeks, starting with the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

– October 28 — Fed rate decision: The policy statement is scheduled for 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. After September’s 25-basis-point increase brought rates to 3.75%–4.00%, Polymarket traders assign a 95% probability to rates remaining unchanged.

– October 29 — PCE inflation and earnings: September’s personal consumption expenditures inflation report follows a consumer price index reading of 3.7% year over year. Coinbase and Strategy are also scheduled to release third-quarter results after the U.S. market closes.

– October 30 — Bitcoin options expiry: Deribit’s monthly Bitcoin options will settle at 08:00 UTC. Open interest for the expiry stands at 135,452 BTC, worth approximately $11.04 billion and accounting for 34.4% of the platform’s total open interest. The put-call ratio is 0.53, while the max-pain level is $78,000.

– November 3 — U.S. midterm elections: The outcome could influence cryptocurrency legislation and the broader regulatory landscape.

– December 9 — Fed meeting: Traders are already considering another rate increase, with Polymarket placing the probability of a December hike at 76.5%.

These events could affect liquidity, investor sentiment, and Bitcoin’s volatility as the market approaches the end of the year.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Reclaim $83,624?

Bitcoin remains above its 50-day exponential moving average but has yet to recover its October opening price. Whether the cryptocurrency can regain momentum will depend on its ability to break through nearby resistance while holding key support.

BTC is trading slightly above its 50-day EMA at $80,833 after rebounding from the October 24 low of $79,221. Its 200-day EMA stands at $76,443, providing another technical level to monitor if the price weakens.

Resistance at $83,624: This is Bitcoin’s October opening price. A sustained move above it would return the monthly performance to positive territory.

Additional resistance at $84,898: The October 21 high represents another hurdle for buyers following the recent decline.

Support at $79,221: The October 24 low remains an important level after withstanding three additional dips during the week.

A sustained move above $83,624 could strengthen the case for an October recovery. However, a break below $79,221 would weaken the near-term outlook and expose Bitcoin to further downside pressure.