Bitcoin Struggles for Direction Near $84K as Consumer Confidence Plunges

Consumer Confidence Takes a Sharp Hit

U.S. consumer confidence weakened considerably in September, with The Conference Board’s index falling 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August. Economists had expected the reading to improve slightly to 89.

The latest figure was the weakest since April 2014, as higher interest rates and elevated gasoline prices appeared to weigh on consumer sentiment.

The Expectations Index also moved lower, dropping 5.9 points to 63.6 and extending its decline to a third consecutive month.

Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, said confidence deteriorated noticeably in September after weakening in the previous two months.

Consumers’ assessment of current business conditions turned negative for the first time since September 2024. Views of the current labor market also deteriorated, although they remained positive overall.

Consumers now expect both business activity and labor-market conditions to weaken over the next six months. Household income expectations remained positive, but the outlook was less optimistic than in previous months.

Polymarket contracts showed a 62% market-implied chance of Democrats winning both the Senate and House, near the contracts’ highest level. Contracts for a Republican sweep were at 8%.

Job Openings Decline

U.S. job openings fell to 7.079 million in August from 7.335 million in July, according to the latest government data. The figure was also below the 7.23 million economists had expected.

The JOLTS report typically reflects conditions with a lag, but the latest figures provided another indication that labor-market strength may be fading.

Investors are now waiting for Friday’s September Nonfarm Payrolls report. Forecasts call for 129,000 new jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.

Crude Oil Heads Toward $90

WTI crude declined more than 3% over 24 hours, approaching $90 a barrel for the first time in a week.

The benchmark had reached $106 in mid-September. Since the war in the Middle East began in February, WTI has spent much of the year trading between $70 and $100 a barrel.

Bitcoin Futures Open Interest Reaches 2026 Low

Bitcoin futures open interest has dropped to 628,000 BTC, marking a year-to-date low. That compares with 763,000 BTC at the beginning of August, according to CoinGlass.

Bitcoin was trading near $63,000 at the start of August before climbing as high as $87,500 in mid-September.

The decline in open interest indicates that traders are carrying less futures exposure into the fourth quarter. Retail activity also remains subdued, while Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter.

Bianco Finds Opportunity in Bonds

Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, said he sees value in the bond market and would continue adding exposure if yields rise.

Bianco said widespread bearishness toward bonds is giving investors a substantial cushion when buying at yields around 5.2%.

The duration of the WisdomTree Bianco Total Return Fund, which he manages, has increased to more than six years, compared with 5.7 years for the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.

Bianco has argued for months that the Federal Reserve erred by beginning its easing cycle in September 2024. He cited the continued increase in long-term bond yields despite reductions in short-term rates.

With the Fed now tightening and longer-duration yields elevated, Bianco said the backdrop may be becoming more supportive for bonds.

Credit Spreads Start Widening

Credit spreads have begun to widen after remaining relatively tight earlier this year.

Fed officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh, had previously pointed to narrow yield spreads between different grades of corporate debt as a sign that investors remained comfortable with the economic outlook.

That dynamic has shifted in recent weeks. Bespoke reported a substantial widening between investment-grade and high-yield bonds over the past two weeks.

Australia Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on Tuesday, extending the global tightening trend.

The move marked the RBA’s fourth rate increase this year and took its policy rate to the highest level since 2011. The RBA joins the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank in raising rates as global bond yields continue to climb.

Bitcoin Rebounds Above $84,000

Bitcoin gained 1% to trade above $84,200 on Tuesday after finding buying interest near $82,500. The move came as the 10-year Treasury yield remained around 5.25%, following Monday’s rise to its highest level since 2007.

Ether advanced 2% to nearly $2,720, while DOGE rose 3% and XRP gained 2%. BNB, SOL and TRX each increased less than 1%. HYPE slipped 1%, while ZEC dropped 9% to approximately $1,423.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $31 million in net inflows Monday, while Ether ETFs attracted roughly $17 million, according to SoSoValue. SOL and XRP funds brought in a combined $17 million. The sole U.S. ZEC fund recorded an $8 million net outflow.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said the crypto market was staging a cautious recovery from last week’s low near $2.83 trillion. However, he said the market remained in a short-term downtrend as long as total capitalization stayed below $2.90 trillion.

Kuptsikevich also pointed to dollar strength and uncertainty across equity markets as sources of pressure. He said Bitcoin had found support around previous highs following its pullback, while sustained positive sentiment could put multi-month highs above $87,000 within reach.