Bitcoin Resilience Tested as Fed Policy Takes Center Stage After AI Rout

Bitcoin stayed close to $65,000 despite a sharp pullback in Nvidia and other AI-related technology stocks. Analysts say the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision could determine whether BTC breaks out of its prolonged consolidation range or returns to June’s lows.

The crypto market showed relative strength on Monday, with Bitcoin holding firm even as AI-focused equities faced heavy selling pressure.

BTC traded near $65,000, marking a gain of about 4% since Friday, while Ethereum reached its highest price in almost two months. Meanwhile, Nvidia fell 4.8%, weighing on AI-linked stocks, although the broader Nasdaq remained largely unchanged as gains from major technology companies including Apple, Microsoft, and Google helped offset the losses.

Still, Bitcoin’s resilience is approaching a critical test.

With the Fed’s policy announcement, important U.S. inflation data, and earnings reports from several major technology companies all scheduled this week, analysts believe the next few sessions could decide whether Bitcoin finally breaks above its months-long range or faces another decline toward June support levels.

Technical Picture Remains Encouraging

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said crypto’s ability to remain stable during volatility in traditional markets is a positive development.

He suggested that recent price action indicates digital assets may be starting to show some independence from traditional risk assets.

According to Kruger, Bitcoin must clear $67,300 to confirm a breakout from the multi-week consolidation pattern that has limited gains since June. A move above that level could signal further upside, while Ethereum faces a similar challenge around the $2,000 threshold.

Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also pointed to Ethereum’s recent strength versus Bitcoin as a bullish indicator for the broader crypto market. The ETH/BTC ratio, which tracks Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin, reached a three-month high on Monday.

Recovery Faces Demand Concerns

Despite the positive price action, some analysts remain cautious about the strength of Bitcoin’s rebound.

Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the recovery has lacked the strong buying demand usually associated with the beginning of a sustained rally.

He argued that Bitcoin is simply holding within its current range rather than building enough momentum for a confirmed breakout.

Sondergaard’s base case remains a possible decline toward the $52,000–$58,000 zone unless broader market conditions improve.

While nearly 9,000 BTC moved off exchanges over the past week, Bitcoin futures open interest declined even as prices moved higher. This suggests traders are reducing exposure rather than aggressively adding new bullish positions. Order-book data also continues to indicate net selling pressure.

Sondergaard said the Federal Reserve’s decision and the guidance that follows will likely determine the direction of risk assets on Wednesday. Investors will also focus on Thursday’s core PCE inflation report, second-quarter GDP figures, earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon, along with Friday’s estimated $13 billion–$14 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry.

For Nansen to become more optimistic, the firm wants to see stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, continued demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs, and signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at losses.

Until those conditions emerge, Sondergaard views the latest Bitcoin recovery as a temporary positioning bounce rather than the start of a broader market uptrend.