Bitcoin hovers above $77K as oil tumbles 5%, supporting a rally in Asian shares.

Bitcoin traded slightly higher at the start of the week, supported by improving risk sentiment as a sharp decline in oil prices lifted Asian equity markets.

The cryptocurrency hovered around $77,200 at 6:35 UTC, marking a gain of about 0.4% on the day, according to CoinDesk data. At that level, bitcoin was holding just above its key 50-day simple moving average near $76,940—a technical threshold widely tracked by traders as a signal of potential bullish momentum if sustained.

Other major cryptocurrencies also posted modest gains but continued to trail bitcoin from a technical perspective. XRP and Solana (SOL) each advanced more than 0.6%, while Ether (ETH) rose around 0.4%, though all three remained below their respective 50-day averages.

The broader market tone improved after West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped more than 5% to roughly $91 per barrel, extending a sharp pullback from last week’s high above $104. The slide in oil prices helped fuel gains across Asian stock markets, with India’s Nifty climbing over 1%, Japan’s Nikkei rising close to 3%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 adding 0.4% in early trading.

The decline in oil followed reports of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil corridor that previously handled more than 20% of supply flows before tensions escalated earlier this year. Iran’s IRGC said more than 20 tankers had recently passed through the strait, though traffic remains below pre-conflict levels.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that negotiations with Iran were advancing, noting that a substantial agreement was on the table and a deal to end hostilities could potentially be reached as early as Monday. He added that while diplomatic efforts remain the priority, alternative options are being considered if talks fail.

Despite the improved macro backdrop, analysts remained cautious on bitcoin’s outlook, pointing to more than $2 billion in outflows from spot ETFs over the past two weeks.

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said ETF flows remain a crucial signal for the market. While bitcoin can absorb some institutional selling if liquidity conditions remain stable and long-term holders stay firm, persistent outflows could limit the strength and durability of any rally.

India-based exchange CoinSwitch also struck a cautious tone, noting that a finalized U.S.-Iran agreement would likely be needed for sustained upside. The exchange added that on-chain data showing a net inflow of 18,528 BTC to centralized platforms could indicate rising sell-side pressure, even as overall sentiment improves.