Bitcoin is on course for its strongest weekly performance since September 2025, climbing roughly 8.5% over the past seven days and holding above the $71,000 level. The rally comes as bitcoin begins to decouple from traditional markets while institutional demand gradually returns.
Over the past week, bitcoin has started to move differently from other major assets. Using iShares Bitcoin Trust as a short-term proxy, the ETF has gained about 3.5% over the last five days and approached a one-month high on Friday.
Meanwhile, other assets have struggled. The iShares Expanded Tech Software ETF, Gold and broader U.S. equities have all trended lower as the week progressed. The divergence suggests bitcoin’s previously tight correlation with technology and software stocks may be weakening, at least in the near term.
The shift has become more noticeable since the conflict in the Middle East began roughly two weeks ago. During that period, bitcoin has gained around 13%, outperforming both traditional risk assets and classic safe havens. Over the same timeframe, IGV has risen about 3%, while gold has declined roughly 6% and U.S. stocks have also moved lower.
On a monthly basis, bitcoin is up around 7% so far in March. If the gains hold, it would mark the cryptocurrency’s first positive monthly performance since September. The rebound follows a difficult stretch in which bitcoin logged five consecutive monthly declines, at one point falling nearly 50% from its October all-time high.
Recent buying activity appears to be coming largely from the United States, with institutional demand gradually returning to the market. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have attracted approximately $1.3 billion in net inflows so far this month, putting the segment on track to record its first month of positive flows since October.
Despite the improving price action, market sentiment remains cautious.
The crypto Fear and Greed Index continues to sit in “extreme fear” territory, indicating that investors remain wary even as prices rise. At the same time, funding rates in perpetual futures markets remain negative. Funding rates are periodic payments between traders designed to keep perpetual futures prices aligned with spot markets. When rates are negative, short sellers pay long positions, signaling that bearish positioning still dominates and traders are willing to pay to maintain short exposure.
This combination suggests that while bitcoin may be stabilizing, the broader market is not yet fully convinced the rally will continue.
Still, the recent divergence from other assets highlights a possible shift in how investors view bitcoin. Rather than behaving purely as a high-risk asset tied closely to technology stocks, it may increasingly function as a real-time barometer for macro events.
As some analysts have noted, bitcoin’s 24-hour trading cycle allows it to react to global developments before traditional markets open. The outbreak of the Middle East conflict illustrated this dynamic, with bitcoin adjusting immediately while other asset classes responded only once their respective markets reopened. Now, as traditional markets react, bitcoin has largely stabilized.
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