Bitcoin Flashes Strong Capitulation Signs, but VanEck Says a Bottom Is Still Pending

Bitcoin is flashing several signs of a capitulation phase, but VanEck says investors should not assume the market has reached its bottom yet.

Eight of the 12 capitulation indicators tracked by VanEck are currently signaling extreme conditions, while all 12 entered their respective zones at least once during the past three months, according to the asset manager’s mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck.

The indicators are designed to capture periods of intense selling by examining factors such as Bitcoin’s drawdown from its peak, miner profitability and the share of holders with unrealized losses.

Historical performance offers little reason to expect an immediate rebound. When eight to 12 indicators were active in previous cycles, Bitcoin posted average gains of 12.8% over the next 90 days and 32% over 180 days. Both figures were below Bitcoin’s broader historical averages of 15.2% and 36.3%. The stronger relative performance emerged only over a 12-month period.

Most of the indicators are triggered when their readings fall into the lowest 15% of their historical ranges. The price-drawdown measure uses a separate threshold, activating when Bitcoin falls more than 35% from its all-time high.

With Bitcoin currently down about 49% from its peak, its drawdown sits near the 35th percentile historically. As a result, it would not qualify under the percentile-based rule, meaning the current setup could technically be counted as seven active signals instead of eight, VanEck said.

Previous major Bitcoin bottoms involved much deeper declines of 94%, 85%, 84% and 78%. Those cycles also occurred before spot Bitcoin ETFs provided a source of institutional demand, when institutional ownership was smaller and major crypto firms such as Celsius and FTX collapsed.

Bitcoin traded near $64,300 during Asian evening hours Wednesday, roughly 49% below its record high. Thirty-day realized volatility stood at 27.2% annualized, well below its long-term average of around 80%. BTC has remained mostly between $62,300 and $66,500 since recovering from a June 30 low near $58,500.

The current decline is also approaching the duration seen in earlier bear markets. VanEck identified four completed Bitcoin cycles since 2011, with peak-to-trough declines lasting an average of 11 months. Excluding the smaller 2011 cycle, the average increases to 12.7 months.

Bitcoin entered the 10th month of its decline from the October 2025 peak in August. Based on previous cycles, VanEck expects the next accumulation phase to emerge between September and November, although it has not identified a specific date for the bottom.

Bitcoin miners are bearing significant pressure. Daily network revenue has fallen 46% year over year, while mining difficulty has dropped 18.3% from its November 2025 peak as unprofitable machines have been taken offline. The decline is the steepest since China’s mining crackdown in 2021.

Meanwhile, investment flows have improved. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products, including VanEck’s HODL ETF, attracted approximately $663 million over the past 30 days, reversing around $2.4 billion in outflows recorded during the previous month.

Trading activity remains subdued, with 30-day spot volume down 27% and sitting around the 10th percentile of its historical range.

The historical data suggests that investors acting on these capitulation signals should have a longer time horizon. The indicators have not offered a meaningful edge over three- or six-month periods, while their strongest historical signal has appeared over about a year. Still, VanEck says the measures can help investors determine where Bitcoin stands within its broader market cycle.