Bitcoin Faces Fresh Volatility as Analysts Warn CPI Relief May Fall Short

Bitcoin remained below the $75,000 mark on Tuesday as investors awaited October’s U.S. inflation figures, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions. However, analysts warned that a favorable CPI reading may provide only short-lived support. According to their assessment, Bitcoin needs stronger liquidity conditions and a recovery in spot ETF demand to establish a sustainable upward trend.

The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization traded around $74,750, recording a 0.6% decline since midnight UTC. BTC briefly moved above $75,000 during overnight trading but failed to hold its gains.

The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Dow Jones consensus estimates point to a 0.3% monthly increase in headline inflation, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to advance 0.2%. These projections would represent a slowdown from September’s respective increases of 0.6% and 0.3%.

The upcoming release will not include a year-over-year inflation figure. Last year’s government shutdown prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting a complete October index, leaving no comparable annual reading.

Bitcoin Faces Pressure Despite Expectations of Cooling Inflation

Bitcoin is entering the latest inflation announcement amid persistent market weakness. The cryptocurrency has struggled since climbing above $87,000 in early October, while uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence investments has contributed to volatility across traditional financial markets.

The slowdown in spot Bitcoin ETF demand has created another obstacle for bulls. These investment products previously attracted substantial institutional capital and helped support Bitcoin’s upward movement. However, weaker recent flows have reduced that source of buying pressure.

BRN analysts believe easing inflation expectations could improve sentiment across risk assets. Still, they warned that Bitcoin needs consistent spot market purchases to sustain a recovery.

They also highlighted the importance of positive ETF inflows and a more dovish Federal Reserve. Without improvements in these areas, Bitcoin could remain vulnerable to additional losses, even if the inflation report delivers encouraging results.

Bitget Wallet analysts offered a similar outlook, warning that the CPI announcement could introduce further volatility into cryptocurrency markets. A hotter reading could strengthen expectations of a December rate increase, while softer core inflation might trigger a temporary price rebound.

However, they stressed that favorable inflation data alone cannot guarantee a lasting recovery. Better liquidity and stronger spot buying activity remain essential for rebuilding Bitcoin’s upward momentum.

The inflation report is also part of a broader series of economic releases scheduled for November. U.S. producer price index data will arrive on November 13, followed by the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes on November 18. The November 25 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will provide another important indication of inflation trends.

Moon Pursuit Capital founder and managing partner Utkarsh Ahuja warned that persistent inflation could restrict the Federal Reserve’s ability to provide monetary support, even if technology stocks experience further weakness.

He referred to recent comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly regarding the possibility of additional interest rate increases, cautioning investors against expecting an immediate central bank response to market declines.

Ahuja also pointed to financing pressures facing large artificial intelligence projects. Rising borrowing costs and longer approval timelines could reduce expected returns, while companies seeking fresh capital before their existing projects generate sufficient cash flow may encounter additional execution and funding risks.

Bitcoin Support at $73,000 Becomes Critical for Traders

Bitcoin’s next significant move could depend on whether buyers manage to defend the $73,000-$74,000 support region.

BRN analysts warned that a daily close below $73,000 could accelerate selling activity and expose BTC to a decline toward $70,000. If the correction deepens, prices could eventually move below $60,000, approaching the lows recorded in July.

The firm views Bitcoin’s recent recovery from below $74,000 as a temporary interruption in its broader decline rather than evidence of a confirmed trend reversal.

Bitget Wallet analysts have also identified the $73,000-$74,000 range as an important support zone. They believe a healthier market structure will require more balanced derivatives positioning and sustained positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

On the upside, a recovery above $80,000 followed by continued trading at that level would indicate stronger demand and improve the technical outlook.

Conversely, losing $73,000 could open the way toward $68,000. A breakdown below that secondary support would suggest a more significant market correction rather than a temporary wave of leveraged liquidations.