Bitcoin ETF Demand Rebounds With $75M Inflows Amid December Rate Cut Bets

Bitcoin ETFs attracted fresh investments on November 4 as BTC recovered above $81,000, reversing the recent trend of heavy withdrawals. However, the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts remains uncertain after Goldman Sachs revised its monetary policy expectations. The bank has pushed its projected reductions back by three months, forecasting cuts in December 2026 and March 2027 amid persistent inflation and a resilient U.S. labor market.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs generated $74.6 million in combined net inflows, ending three consecutive trading sessions of withdrawals that had removed approximately $1.16 billion from the funds. Fidelity’s FBTC led the positive flows, while BlackRock’s IBIT continued to register significant investor outflows.

Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund secured approximately $236.7 million in new capital on November 4. Bitwise’s BITB attracted $15.2 million, while ARK Invest’s ARKB recorded another $19.9 million in inflows.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust experienced the opposite trend, posting $201.2 million in net withdrawals. The latest decline marked its fourth consecutive session of outflows, taking the cumulative amount withdrawn during the period to approximately $935 million.

The mixed performance indicates that institutional interest in Bitcoin remains divided. Although several funds have started attracting fresh investments, continued withdrawals from IBIT suggest that some investors are still taking money off the table.

Bitcoin’s price has also recovered significantly after falling to approximately $75,600 during the November 3 U.S. midterm election period, marking a seven-week low. BTC subsequently climbed above $81,000 as market conditions stabilized following the election results. Nevertheless, the rebound appears to have resulted from multiple factors rather than one isolated event.

Goldman Sachs Delays Fed Rate Cut Forecast as Inflation Remains Persistent

Goldman Sachs has pushed its Federal Reserve rate cut expectations back by one quarter, with the investment bank now anticipating reductions in December 2026 and March 2027.

The revised forecast reflects concerns that inflation may remain elevated for longer than expected. Rising energy costs could keep core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation close to 3% throughout the year, complicating the Federal Reserve’s efforts to ease monetary policy.

Goldman economist David Mericle indicated that further declines in inflation and additional weakness in the labor market would probably be necessary before policymakers consider cutting interest rates earlier.

The bank has maintained its projected terminal federal funds rate between 3% and 3.25%. However, it acknowledged that the Federal Reserve could decide against additional reductions if economic activity and employment remain stronger than anticipated.

Bank of America has adopted a more cautious position, removing its expected rate cuts for 2026 and shifting its forecast for monetary easing to the third quarter of 2027.

The revised expectations could create challenges for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. Historically, declining interest rates have supported risk assets by lowering borrowing costs and improving liquidity. If the Federal Reserve maintains restrictive monetary conditions for longer, investors may become less willing to increase exposure to volatile assets.

Despite the changing interest rate outlook, the latest ETF figures suggest that institutional investors continue to see opportunities in Bitcoin. The return of positive fund flows indicates that some investors are accumulating BTC even as expectations for monetary easing weaken.

This creates a mixed environment for the cryptocurrency market. Sustained institutional purchases could help Bitcoin maintain its recovery and establish stronger price support. However, persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs could restrict liquidity, potentially limiting further upside.

Market participants will now be watching upcoming economic reports, particularly inflation and employment data, alongside daily Bitcoin ETF flows. These developments could determine whether institutional demand remains strong enough to support BTC despite the Federal Reserve’s increasingly cautious approach.