Bitcoin Breaks $65K Amid Cooling U.S.–Iran Tensions as Oil Prices Sink

Ether is gaining faster than bitcoin, signaling a potential early rotation into altcoins, as easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran push oil prices lower.

Markets shifted back into a risk-on stance after both sides refrained from further military action on Sunday, leading to a decline in crude prices.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, has climbed back above $65,000, rising about 1.2% over the past day. Ether advanced more than 3% to near $1,950, while other major tokens like Solana and XRP posted gains of around 1% to 2%.

WTI crude futures dropped roughly 5% on Monday to trade near $85, while futures tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose about 0.5%. Currency markets also reflected improved sentiment, with the Australian dollar and euro strengthening against the U.S. dollar.

The U.S. and Iran paused hostilities for a second consecutive day, raising hopes for renewed diplomatic talks. The conflict, which began in late February, had briefly seen a fragile ceasefire earlier in the year before breaking down.

Iran has reportedly indicated it will continue suspending airstrikes as long as the U.S. does the same, marking a tentative step toward another possible peace process.

“Markets are responding to broader macro factors,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based crypto exchange Giottus.

He noted that Brent crude’s 4.7% decline to $92.19 has helped ease inflation concerns, though attention remains on the Federal Reserve’s July 28–29 meeting. Markets are currently pricing in a 36.3% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase.

Subburaj added that ether’s outperformance suggests some capital rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies, though bitcoin’s dominance at 58.6% indicates the trend is not yet widespread.

Meanwhile, some analysts continue to point to bitcoin’s four-year cycle, suggesting the market may be approaching a bottom ahead of the next major rally.

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, noted that previous cycles have shown roughly 900 days between each Bitcoin halving and the subsequent bear market low. With the current cycle at around day 827, he believes bitcoin may already be forming a base, with a potential final bottom developing within the next couple of months.