Asset manager Bitwise points to three challenges for crypto in 2026.

Bitwise Says Crypto Rally in 2026 Hinges on Three Key Factors

Bitcoin and ether have kicked off 2026 strongly, but sustaining the rally will depend on market stability, U.S. regulation, and equity conditions, according to crypto asset manager Bitwise.

In a blog post Tuesday, Bitwise highlighted that bitcoin (BTC $91,452) and ether (ETH $3,170) are up about 7% year-to-date, while speculative tokens such as Dogecoin (DOGE $0.146) have surged roughly 29%, reflecting renewed risk appetite.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan identified three critical conditions for a lasting rally. First, the market has avoided another major shock like the $19 billion liquidation on October 10, 2025, easing fears of forced sell-offs.

Second, U.S. crypto legislation remains pivotal. Proposed bills are moving through Congress, with a Senate Banking Committee markup tentatively slated for mid-January. Passage would solidify a supportive regulatory environment, while failure could reverse current momentum.

Third, equity markets need to stay stable, as a sharp selloff—such as a 20% drop in the S&P 500—could weigh on crypto despite low correlation.

Bitwise remains cautiously optimistic, citing institutional adoption, stablecoin growth, tokenization, and regulatory progress as key drivers for crypto this year.